Tomorrow night, the UFC returns to Brazil and we will see one of the biggest stars in the sport fight in front of his home country. Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira (35-11) is back as he takes on top ten lightweight Mateusz Gamrot (25-3). Originally, Oliveira was supposed to face Rafael Fiziev, but after a Fiziev injury, Gamrot got the call.
This is a huge opportunity for Gamrot to get himself right in the mix at the top of the lightweight division. After losing his octagon debut back in 2020, Gamrot won four in a row including defeating Arman Tsarukyan in their fight. Since that win, he’s 4-2 with decision losses to Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush.
Now, he’ll look to take out a former champion. Oliveira is fighting for the first time since he was knocked out by Ilia Topuria back in June in their lightweight title fight. Oliveira is just 2-3 in his last three UFC bouts following his 11-fight win streak. That said, the losses were to Ilia Topuria, Islam Makhachev, and Arman Tsarukyan.
UFC Rio Prediction
Coming off a knockout loss, I was really concerned for Charles Oliveira facing an elite striker like Rafael Fiziev. On paper, this is such a better matchup for him. However, it’s not like Mateusz Gamrot is going to be an easy out at UFC Rio.
Gamrot has very good grappling and he’s excellent with controlling his opponents when he’s on top. We’ve seen Oliveira accept the bottom before in fights because of his jiu jitsu, but that could be his downfall in this matchup because of Gamrot’s skills as a grappler.
On the feet, Oliveira definitely has the advantage. He carries more power in his striking and he’s extremely technical. Gamrot is going to have to deal with rangey strikes from Oliveira that carry a lot of power.
Many are wondering how much Oliveira has left in the tank and I think this matchup at UFC Rio will tell us. If Oliveira is on and he’s still got a lot left, he’s going to win this fight. However, if he’s taken down and controlled over five rounds, his days near the top at 155 might be over.
I do think Oliveira gets it done tomorrow night. I expect him to really outstrike Gamrot and I think you’ll see him hurt Gamrot at some point before hopping on his back and securing a submission win.
Prediction: Charles Oliveira by Submission
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