On the main card of UFC 322 tomorrow night, we are going to see a couple of pivotal matchups in the welterweight division. One of those matchups features former world champion Leon Edwards (22-5, 1 NC) as he tries to right the ship against Carlos Prates (22-7).
Starting with the former champion, he needs a win in the worst way possible. Edwards entered 2024 with all the momentum in the world as the welterweight champion who had dethroned Kamaru Usman and then defeated Usman in a rematch and Colby Covington.
He then lost his title to Belal Muhammad in front of his home country. The UFC gave Edwards a headlining spot in a Fight Night in the UK back in March against Sean Brady and Edwards was utterly dominated. Now, he’s looking a potential three-fight losing streak.
To avoid that, he’ll have to beat Carlos Prates. Prates came into the UFC back in 2024 and won his first four fights by knockout earning performance bonuses in every fight. He parlayed that into a main event against Ian Machado Garry back in April.
Prates struggled to pull the trigger in that one and despite nearly getting a finish at the end, he lost a decision. Back in August in Chicago, Prates returned to form against Geoff Neal and knocked him out in the first round.
UFC 322 Prediction
This is really a make-or-break fight for Leon Edwards. While the former champion is just 34-years-old, it feels like if he loses this fight, the days of him being elite at 170 might be over. That said, this is a very favorable matchup for the former champion.
Yes, Edwards has lost two fights in a row, but both of those fights were against top level wrestlers. Edwards is a striker and he’s going to be facing someone who will stand and trade with him. Can he take advantage of that type of matchup and get back to his winning form?
I honestly don’t think so and I’m going with Carlos Prates at UFC 322. I think you’ll see a very aggressive Prates who’s sniping ability combined with his power is going to make Edwards tentative. People might point to Prates’ struggles against Ian Machado Garry earlier this year, but what happened when Prates got comfortable and aggressive?
He had a ton of success and nearly finished the fight. He’s learned from that lesson and he’s going to do well in this fight. Edwards is going to land shots, but I don’t see them having the same impact. We’ve seen Edwards wobbled in the feet and I think you’ll see him get finished tomorrow night. Giving me Carlos Prates within the distance.
Prediction: Carlos Prates by TKO
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