On the main card of UFC 321 tomorrow, we are going to see a potential title eliminator in the bantamweight division. Former title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1) will look to bounce back after suffering his first loss as he takes on surging contender Mario Bautista (16-2).
Starting with Nurmagomedov, he’s coming off a loss to Merab Dvalishvili back in January for the bantamweight title. In that fight, Nurmagomedov entered as the favorite and he looked sensational through two rounds. On two of the three scorecards, Nurmagomedov was up 2-0 after two against Dvalishvili.
However, in the third round, Dvalishvili really started to take over with his pressure and volume. Nurmagomedov did suffer a hand injury but that was coupled with him slowing down and Dvalishvili never stopping. Dvalishvili came back to win the final three rounds and win a decision over Nurmagomedov.
Nurmagomedov is out to prove a point in Abu Dhabi and he’s going to try and prove that point against Mario Bautista. Bautista has been playing the ultimate spoiler as of late. Last October, Bautista defeated Jose Aldo when Aldo was trying to make one final run towards the UFC title.
It wasn’t a great performance and many didn’t think he won which didn’t help his popularity. Then, he took on Patchy Mix who was making his debut in June and while there was all the hype in the world around Mix, Bautista completely dominated him with an incredible performance. That win was Bautista’s eighth in a row and now he gets Nurmagomedov in Abu Dhabi.
UFC 321 Prediction
When analyzing this fight, I started thinking everything that Mario Bautista does well. He fights with ton of forward pressure and he is very well-rounded. He has good striking, he has good cage control, and he has very good grappling. Overall, he’s a very good fighter.
However, there’s a real problem going into UFC 321 and that problem is, I don’t think he’s better than Umar Nurmagomedov anywhere. I don’t think that he has better striking than Nurmagomedov. I mean, we’ve seen Nurmagomedov outstrike Cory Sandhagen and Merab Dvalishvili throughout their fights.
He certainly is not a better grappler and I would bet all the money in the world that he’s not physically stronger than Nurmagomedov. What about cardio? Well, Nurmagomedov slowed down in his last fight, but that was over five rounds against an actual machine in champion Merab Dvalishvili. I was actually very impressed with how good Nurmagomedov’s cardio was in that fight.
It is not going to be a problem in this one. With all that being said, I don’t think we are going to see a tremendously competitive fight here. I don’t know if we will see Nurmagomedov finish a very tough and durable Mario Bautista, but he’s just going to be better wherever the fight goes and that will ultimately lead to a pretty lopsided decision.
Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
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