On the main card of UFC 321 tomorrow, we are going to see a potential title eliminator in the heavyweight division. Top contenders will battle it out as Alexander Volkov (38-11) takes on grappling sensation and fellow top contender Jailton Almeida (22-3).
Starting with Volkov, you can easily make the argument that he should be facing Tom Aspinall in the main event tomorrow. The last time we saw Volkov was in December when he lost a split decision to Ciryl Gane. Calling a spade a spade here, Volkov should’ve won that decision after pretty clearly winning the last two rounds of that fight.
However, two of the judges gave the fight to Gane and now Gane got the title shot while Volkov gets Almeida. That split decision loss to Gane snapped a four-fight win streak for Volkov where he had three finishes and a dominant decision win over former interim title challenger Sergei Pavlovich.
Jailton Almeida earned a contract on The Contender Series back in 2021 as a light heavyweight. After winning his first fight in the UFC at light heavyweight, Almeida decided to move up to heavyweight. Even at heavyweight, this man was ragdolling his opponents and he won his first six at heavyweight with five finishes.
He then faced Curtis Blaydes and he dominated him in the first round taking down the talented wrestler at will. However, in the second round, he was stuck on a single leg and didn’t move as Blaydes blasted him with elbows. Ultimately this led to Almeida suffering his first loss inside the octagon. Since then, he’s had two straight first round finishes.
UFC 321 Prediction
Alexander Volkov is so much better than he was just a few years ago. There was a stretch where Volkov went 3-3 and in two of those losses, he was dominated by Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall by not being able to defend takedowns. Since then, he’s made a big effort to improve that part of his game.
That said, has he improved enough to win at UFC 321? On the feet, Volkov can easily win this fight. He’s incredibly long and he’s a sniper on the feet. Almeida has raw power, but his striking isn’t something to write home about. This fight is ultimately going to come down to whether or not Volkov can defend takedowns.
Unfortunately for him, I don’t think he’s going to be able to stop Almeida. If Jailton Almeida can ragdoll Curtis Blaydes, he’s going to be able to do that against Volkov. Once it’s on the ground, I think you’ll see Almeida go through Volkov’s ground defenses with relative ease and he’ll lock in a submission for the win at UFC 321. I think it’ll look very similar to Tom Aspinall’s performance against Volkov.
Prediction: Jailton Almeida by Submission
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