Tomorrow night in the main event of UFC 317, the vacant lightweight title is on the line. Former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria (16-0) officially makes the move up as he looks to win a second title as he takes on former undisputed lightweight champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (35-10).
Starting with Topuria, he makes the move to 155 after arguably the best two-fight stretch in the history of the promotion. While it might sound crazy to say that, Topuria became the first man to knock out all time great Max Holloway and he also knocked out longtime featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski to become champion.
It was the first time Volkanovski had lost at 145. While there were other contenders he hadn’t fought yet, the weight cut was becoming too much and after that stretch, he wanted the UFC lightweight title. The original thought was him facing Islam Makhachev, but Makhachev decided to vacate the lightweight title to chase the featherweight title.
With that, in steps Charles Oliveira. Do Bronx was the man who held lightweight gold prior to losing it to Makhachev. Since the beginning of 2018, Oliveira has gone 13-2 with stoppages over the likes of Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, and Beneil Dariush. His only two losses came against Makhachev and a very close split decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan.
UFC 317 Prediction
Yes, Ilia Topuria has fought Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski in his last two fights, but I think this is his toughest matchup yet. Charles Oliveira is long and he’s big which could create some issues for Topuria. The former UFC lightweight champion also has an incredible amount of power in his hands and he’s extremely dangerous off his back even after he’s been hurt.
Ilia Topuria is at his best when he’s the one moving forward. He’s fighting someone in Oliveira who comes forward even more than he does. It’s going to be interesting to see how well Topuria fights off his back foot. Topuria has good wrestling, but we’ve never seen him on the ground with someone as slick as Oliveira.
All the odds are with Topuria given the fact that he’s 16-0 and he’s coming off knockouts of Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, but I think this is a very dangerous fight for him. Oliveira has more power than anyone he’s fought and he’s bigger than anyone he’s fought. Topuria relies on speed and his power and while I’m sure his power will carry to 155, I’m wondering if his added muscle will impact his speed at UFC 317.
Call me crazy, but I like Charles Oliveira to pull the upset. Will I be surprised if Ilia Topuria comes out and knocks out Charles Oliveira? No, we’ve seen Do Bronx get dropped and we know how good and powerful Topuria is. However, I think the concept of moving backwards is foreign to Topuria and I think he’ll struggle a little with the range.
I think he’ll land big on Oliveira at times, but I think something happens in the middle rounds which will lead to a scramble on the ground. Once it’s there, I think the long limbs of Do Bronx will find a submission and he’ll regain the lightweight title.
Prediction: Charles Oliveira by Submission