Tomorrow night in the co-main event of UFC 316, the women’s bantamweight title is on the line. Two-time champion Julianna Pena (11-5) will look to defend her title successfully for the first time as she takes on former PFL champion and two-time Olympic Gold Medalist Kayla Harrison (18-1).
Kayla Harrison is the massive betting favorite tomorrow night and it’s pretty easy to see why. Harrison has dominated in all aspects of combat sports throughout her entire career. She’s the most decorated US judoka in history with two gold medals and she dominated MMA in the PFL become a multiple time world champion with one slip up against one of the best in the world in Larissa Pacheco. Worth noting that Harrison also has two wins over Pacheco.
Harrison made the jump to the UFC in 2024 and she stared strong with a dominant win over Holly Holm. Her second win came against top contender Ketlen Vieira and that one was more of a struggle. However, Harrison ultimately got the win and that earned her this title shot.
The same night that Harrison defeated Vieira, Julianna Pena became a two-time UFC champion. Pena defeated Raquel Pennington by split decision to win back the title. Granted, myself along with virtually every media outlet didn’t think that Pena won that fight. Including myself, 26 media members scored the fight for Pennington with one scoring the fight for Pena. It was a bad decision but Pena walked away becoming a two-time champion.
While Pena is a two-time champion, she’s the massive underdog heading into tomorrow night. She’s tough as hell and she’s going to need that toughness to retain tomorrow night.
UFC 316 Prediction
Julianna Pena’s career is so interesting to me. Yes, she’s a two-time champion and nobody can take that away from her. However, I think it’s safe to say that she’s probably looked at as the worst two-time champion in the history of the promotion. She’s 4-3 in her last seven fights with one of those wins being that bad decision against Pennington. The two wins other than the historic Amanda Nunes upset came against Sara McMann and Nicco Montano.
Amanda Nunes destroyed her in their rematch making the first fight seem like a fluke. She was submitted by striker Germaine de Randamie and then she was submitted by Valentina Shevchenko. She’s tough, but she’s run into some really solid fortune which has carried her more than her skills to become a two-time UFC champion.
That’s why I have a really hard time seeing her win tomorrow night. Kayla Harrison’s striking isn’t elite, but neither is Pena’s. I’m sure that Harrison also has much more power in anything that she throws. I mean, Raquel Pennington was able to drop Julianna Pena in their fight. The grappling is not going to be close in this one either.
Julianna Pena’s only chance in this one is a repeat of the first Amanda Nunes fight. She needs to hope that Kayla Harrison becomes incredibly tired which will allow her to use her toughness and cardio to either win a decision or somehow score a finish. If Harrison’s cardio holds up for 25 minutes, I don’t see any path for Pena.
She’s one of the toughest women in the UFC, nobody can take that from her. However, from a skills perspective I just don’t see it and I think that Kayla Harrison is going to win going away tomorrow. She’s going to dominate the grappling and she’ll be so far ahead that she can coast through the final couple of rounds and still win a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Kayla Harrison by Decision