Tomorrow night in the co-main event of UFC 314, we are going to see a five-round lightweight matchup between two massive fan favorites. Former title challenger “Iron” Michael Chandler (23-9) will look to get back on track as he takes on Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (22-3) who will look to remain unbeaten inside the octagon.
It’s hard to imagine a tougher schedule than Michael Chandler’s had since he made the jump over to the UFC. Since making the jump, Chandler has fought six times and his opponents include Charles Oliveira (twice), Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, Dan Hooker, and Tony Ferguson. Yes, Chandler has gone just 2-4 in those six fights, but he’s been in all of those fights and in every single loss, he’s had his opponents on the ropes where one big shot could’ve won him the fight.
While Chandler has had an insanely tough schedule, the opposite can be said of Paddy Pimblett. The former Cage Warriors champion entered the UFC with a ton of hype and he’s gone 6-0 inside the octagon. While he’s stepped up in competition along the way, his toughest fight to date was against King Green which is a far cry from the schedule of Michael Chandler. This is by far going to be his toughest test.
UFC 314 Prediction
On paper, this fight is not close. Not even remotely close if you ask me and that’s not me being a hater, I’m just telling it like it is. Michael Chandler is the more decorated wrestler, he’s way more powerful on the feet, and he’s been through five-round wars throughout his entire career.
Paddy Pimblett has decent but not great striking. He has solid ground skills but his wrestling isn’t sensational. He has decent power in his striking but nothing like the top-tier guys at 155. So all that being said, why in the world is Paddy Pimblett the betting favorite at UFC 314?
I think it comes down to recent records and their fighting styles. If Michael Chandler fought smart, he might be the lightweight champion. He has all the attributes to be the best in the world. However, the reason why he is so popular is he throws everything out the window and he just bangs. Win, lose, or draw, he’s going to put on an incredible fight.
That lack of discipline gets him into trouble and it’s trouble that Pimblett can try to take advantage of. Pimblett can take Chandler down should Chandler overextend on a power shot and get off balance. Once there, Pimblett has the skills to control things on the ground. Pimblett can strike from distance on the feet and score points while avoiding the massive power being thrown back his way.
All that being said, I’m picking Michael Chandler in this one. I’ve never fully bought into the Paddy Pimblett hype and I think that train gets derailed tomorrow night. If he proves me wrong, I’ll be the first to say it but there’s too much in favor of the former Bellator champion for me to overlook it based on recent records.
Prediction: Michael Chandler by TKO