Tomorrow night in the co-main event of UFC 313, we are going to see a rematch between two top ten lightweight contenders. Former interim lightweight and BMF champion Justin Gaethje (25-5) will take on a familiar foe in the returning Rafael Fiziev (12-3).
This is not the fight that was supposed to happen tomorrow night. Originally, Gaethje was supposed to have a five-round fight with Dan Hooker. However, after Hooker sustained a hand injury, Fiziev stepped in on short notice. This will actually be Fiziev’s first fight back since an injury loss to Mateusz Gamrot where he tore his ACL. Prior to that fight was Fiziev’s fight with Gaethje where he lost a decision.
Justin Gaethje really stepped up for the promotion last year. After capturing the BMF belt by knocking out Dustin Poirier and essentially guaranteeing himself a title shot, Gaethje agreed to defend the BMF belt against Max Holloway at UFC 300. Unfortunately, Gaethje was stopped in the final second of that fight and now he needs to fight his way back to a title shot. That fight back starts tomorrow night.
UFC 313 Prediction
I’m not 100% sure what to expect from Fiziev tomorrow night. From what I’ve heard, he’s been training and he’s just been waiting for a fight. He hasn’t fought since his injury which was back in 2023. Not sure if he will be tentative on the feet tomorrow or if they’ll be any rust. He’s going to have a very hungry Justin Gaethje in front of him tomorrow night so he better be ready.
From a technical perspective, Rafael Fiziev is the better striker. That showed at times in their first fight particularly early in the fight. Don’t be surprised if that plays out early at UFC 313. However, Gaethje’s cardio played a big role in their first fight and I think it’ll definitely play a role tomorrow night.
Gaethje was preparing for five hard rounds against Dan Hooker. We really don’t know how great of shape Fiziev is in. Unless Fiziev is able to land something clean and Gaethje is no longer able to take a good shot, I think Gaethje is going to win an action-packed decision due to his pace and cardio.
Prediction: Justin Gaethje by Decision