In the co-main event of UFC 312 tomorrow night, we are going to see a huge championship fight in the strawweight division. A fight that felt destined to happen will finally go down as longtime champion and P4P great Zhang Weili (25-3) takes on undefeated challenger Tatiana Suarez (10-0).
For years it felt like this fight would happen, but there was one thing always standing in the way. The health of Tatiana Suarez. Suarez won The Ultimate Fighter in 2016 and immediately won her first four fights including wins over former champions Alexa Grasso and Carla Esparza.
However, after a win over Nina Nunes in 2019, Suarez didn’t fight again until February 2023 because of injuries. She fought and won twice in 2023. However, she hasn’t fought since due to injuries. She’s healthy now and the UFC is capitalizing on it by giving her the title shot against Zhang Weili.
Weili is in her second run as strawweight champion. After winning the title in 2019, she defended the title once before losing to Rose Namajunas. Weili regained the title in 2022 against Carla Esparza. Since regaining the title, she’s defended the belt twice against Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan.
UFC 312 Prediction
Zhang Weili has been a dominant champion and since she made her UFC debut, only Rose Namajunas has been able to solve the puzzle. However, despite how dominant she’s been against anyone not named Rose Namajunas, Tatiana Suarez is the betting favorite tomorrow night.
Suarez is the betting favorite because of her dominant wrestling. There is not a better wrestler or more dominant grappler than Tatiana Suarez. She’s an absolute monster and if she’s able to take Weili down, the champion could be in a lot of trouble. When Suarez takes opponents down, she looks to do big damage and she’s always going for finishes.
On the feet, I think Weili has a huge advantage. Both in her power and speed. She’s going to need to keep this fight standing and expose the potential holes in Suarez’s striking. The big question is whether or not she can keep the fight standing. One thing I’m wondering is how Suarez’s cardio will hold up over five rounds. We’ve seen Weili have five-round wars for years and Suarez hasn’t even seen a three-round decision since 2019.
I really like Tatiana Suarez and I loved the betting line when she was an underdog. However, as UFC 312 draws closer, I find myself leaning towards the champion. Suarez has all the skills in the world to win this fight, but there are still so many questions surrounding her.
Zhang Weili is a proven five-round championship fighter and we honestly have never seen Suarez in this spot. For that reason, I’m going to ride with the champion tomorrow but I wouldn’t be shocked if Suarez passes this huge test with flying colors.
Prediction: Zhang Weili by Decision