Tomorrow night in the main event of UFC 311, we are going to see a rematch for the lightweight title. Lightweight champion and current P4P king Islam Makhachev (26-1) will look to defend his title for the fourth time as he takes on Arman Tsarukyan (22-3).
These two first fought back in 2019 and Tsarukyan gave Makhachev one of his toughest fights he’s had in the UFC. However, Makhachev pulled out a decision win. Following that loss, Tsarukyan won five straight before suffering a setback against Mateusz Gamrot. Following the loss to Gamrot, Tsarukyan has won four in a row to earn this shot which includes a win over Charles Oliveira and a first round knockout of Beneil Dariush.
The champion Islam Makhachev is looking to make history tomorrow night. Should Makhachev win, he’ll become the first lightweight champion in the history of the promotion with four successful title defenses. He’ll break his current tie with BJ Penn, Benson Henderson, and teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Makhachev won the UFC lightweight title by submitting Charles Oliveira in 2022. He defended his title twice in a row against former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and then he submitted Dustin Poirier back in June. That said, he might be facing his toughest challenger in Tsarukyan tomorrow night.
UFC 311 Prediction
When this fight was first announced, I felt pretty comfortable in picking the champion to retain his title. However, as time has gone on, I’m really starting to waver in my prediction. Tsarukyan is so fast and powerful on the feet that I think he can give Makhachev some problems. I also think his grappling is good enough to hang with the champion.
Makhachev is so well-rounded that there are now holes in his game. His striking is becoming so crisp and we know how dominant he is on the ground. We also know that he has far more championship experience than the challenger. I do wonder how Tsarukyan will do over the course of a five-round war. We’ve seen Makhachev go to deep waters but we haven’t seen Tsarukyan there in this kind of a situation.
So, who walks away lightweight champion after UFC 311? I have to go with the champion. I believe this one is going to be really close and don’t be surprised to see Tsarukyan start out strong with success in the first two rounds. I just think that as the fight goes on, Makhachev will take over and he’ll ultimately do enough to win at least three rounds and walk away with his record-setting fourth title defense.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by Decision