Tomorrow night on the main card of UFC 309, one of the more hyped prospects in the promotion faces his toughest test to date. Former NCAA champion and rising middleweight contender Bo Nickal (6-0) looks to remain undefeated as he takes on Paul Craig (17-8-1).
Bo Nickal is easily one of the most decorated wrestlers to ever step foot inside the octagon. His wrestling credentials are incredible and he’s parlayed that into a very impressive start to his UFC career. After winning a contract after two successful appearances on The Contender Series, Nickal is 3-0 with three finishes in his first three fights.
That said, he has a very interesting challenge tomorrow night. It’s very rare that you find a guy who has a signature submission like Paul Craig. He’s the triangle choke specialist and he has four triangle choke finishes in the UFC and his skills on the ground are incredible. He’s so good on the ground that his skills led him to near title contention at light heavyweight.
He submitted top light heavyweight contender Magomed Ankalaev with a triangle choke. He dislocated the arm and defeated former light heavyweight champ Jamahal Hill. That said, his striking and offensive wrestling have held him back. He dropped to middleweight and thus far he’s 1-2.
UFC 309 Prediction
Bo Nickal is a massive betting favorite and I wouldn’t even sniff those odds if I was betting on the card tomorrow night. Paul Craig is no joke and he’s been in there with some of the best in the world at both middleweight and light heavyweight. Bo Nickal has two very clear advantages in tomorrow night’s fight.
He is a way better and more explosive striker. Nickal also has the obvious wrestling advantage at UFC 309. That said, Paul Craig would welcome Nickal taking him down. Craig wants to be on his back and that’s where he’s the most dangerous. If I’m cornering Bo Nickal, I’m preaching to him that he needs to keep this fight on the feet.
If he does, I think Nickal can finish him. He’s way more powerful on the feet and he’s got a huge speed advantage. That said, if he overswings and it causes him to tire out, I could see a world where he goes for a safety takedown. That said, taking down Paul Craig is no safe haven for Nickal tomorrow especially if he gets tired at all. His defense needs to be sharp.
While I give Paul Craig a better chance than most will, I still think Nickal gets it done. I think he gets it done on the feet and finishes Paul Craig before the third round.
Prediction: Bo Nickal by TKO