Tonight in the co-main event of UFC 306, we are going to see a women’s flyweight trilogy. The champion Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) will look to defend her title against the former queen of the flyweight division Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1).
These two first fought back in March of last year. At the time, Shevchenko was going for her eighth straight title defense. As the fourth round was going on, it felt like Shevchenko was on her way to taking a commanding lead on the scorecards. Then, she threw a very sloppy spinning back kick that Grasso pounced on.
Grasso immediately got her back and locked in a rear naked choke. The longtime champion was forced to tap and Grasso became the champion. The two had an immediate rematch that headlined last year’s Noche UFC card. The fight was very close with both fighters having their moments.
After the fifth round, I had it 3-2 Shevchenko as did two of the judges. However, one judge scored the fifth round an indefensible 10-8 for Alexa Grasso. What should’ve been a split decision win for Shevchenko became a draw and Grasso retained her UFC title. Now, after coaching opposite each other on The Ultimate Fighter, they’ll conclude their trilogy tonight.
UFC 306 Prediction
It’s become clear to me that after the first two fights, these two are neck and neck in all aspects of the game. In terms of the striking, I’d give Shevchenko the advantage with her kicks, but Grasso has the better boxing. Grasso also has more power in her hands and does a better job of throwing combinations.
Shevchenko has flexed her strength in the grappling and that’s really helped her in the first two fights. For Shevchenko to regain her UFC title tonight, her cardio needs to be on point and she needs to be unpredictable. If she leans too much on her wrestling, she will gas out and Grasso will retain.
For Alexa Grasso, she needs to be light on her feet and she needs to turn this into a striking matchup. She’s spent too much time on her back giving up rounds in the first two fights. She cannot get complacent and she needs to take the fight to Valentina Shevchenko. She needs to fight with pressure.
I’ve picked Shevchenko in the first two fights, but I’m going to go with Grasso here. She’s the younger fighter and I think there’s a psychological advantage there. I think she’ll be able to do enough but it’ll be another close fight. Give me the champion to retain at UFC 306.
Prediction: Alexa Grasso by Decision