Tomorrow on the main card of UFC 305, we are going to see a fun matchup in the lightweight division between two men ranked inside the top eleven. 11th ranked Dan Hooker (23-12) will look to get a huge win and make his way up the rankings as he takes on fifth ranked Mateusz Gamrot (24-2, 1 NC).
Starting with Dan Hooker, a few years ago, it looked like he was on his way to a lightweight title shot. In 2020, he had a title eliminator against Dustin Poirier. In that fight, Hooker was winning through two rounds. However, he lost the final three and starting with that fight, he went just 1-4 in his next five fights.
There were a lot of questions surrounding Hooker and his UFC future. However, he bounced back well in November 2022 with a finish over Claudio Puelles and then he scored a decision win over Jalin Turner last July. He’s dealt with some arm injuries over the last year, but he’s back and he’s ready to take on the fifth ranked contender.
Mateusz Gamrot entered the UFC undefeated and promptly lost his first fight by split decision. Then, he won four in a row including over number one contender Arman Tsarukyan. After a loss to Beneil Dariush, Gamrot has bounced back again with three straight wins. He’s hoping that with a win over Hooker in Australia, he’ll be able to get close to a title shot.
UFC 305 Prediction
This fight is going to come down to where it takes place. We know the strengths of both men. For Gamrot, it’s going to be all about pressure and wrestling. He’s one of the best grapplers in the division and we know that he’s going to come right out and he’ll get in Hooker’s face.
For Dan Hooker, he has to keep this fight on the feet. If he gets taken down with ease at UFC 305, it’s going to be a very long night where he’ll lose a decision. That said, he cannot be too complacent on the feet because Gamrot has improved dramatically on the feet.
At the end of the day, this is Mateusz Gamrot’s fight to lose. I don’t like the matchup for Hooker and I think he’ll struggle. I see Gamrot landing quite a few takedowns and ultimately winning a pretty clear decision.
Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot by Decision