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Tomorrow night in the co-main event of UFC 304, the interim heavyweight title is on the line. Interim champion Tom Aspinall (14-3) will look to retain his title and avenge his only loss inside the octagon as he takes on Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (18-4, 1 NC).
Now, I said avenge his only loss but it’s worth noting that the loss has a huge asterisks by it. These two fought back in July 2022 and Aspinall injured his knee just seconds into the first round causing an injury TKO for Blaydes. Aspinall was out for a year and since he’s returned, he’s 2-0 with two first round finishes.
Most recently, Aspinall fought Sergei Pavlovich for the interim title in November at UFC 295. Aspinall beat Pavlovich to the punch and knocked him out clean in the first round. Outside of the injury loss to Blaydes, Aspinall has won all seven fights inside the octagon and he’s never seen a third round.
Curtis Blaydes is finally getting a crack at the title after all his years near the top of the heavyweight division. Multiple times Blaydes has been close and just before getting there, he’d slip up. Blaydes lost his UFC debut to Francis Ngannou and then went 5-0, 1 NC in six fights which led him to a title eliminator against Ngannou. He got knocked out in 45 seconds.
He then won four more fights which got him to a title eliminator against Derrick Lewis. Lewis knocked him out in the second round. Three more wins led him to another title eliminator against Sergei Pavlovich and again, he got knocked out. In March at UFC 299, he stopped Jailton Almeida and that win was enough to finally earn him this shot.
UFC 304 Prediction
I’m not going to lie, I’m probably going to come across as a hater in this prediction section. I say that because I think the only way Blaydes win this fight is by landing the perfect punch or Aspinall gets injured again. Aspinall is light years better on the feet than Curtis Blaydes.
Blaydes has also really gone away from his wrestling roots in recent fights but even if he goes back to his wrestling, Aspinall is more skilled overall on the ground. Aspinall has elite grappling for a heavyweight and his jiu jitsu is incredible. I just really don’t see the path to a Blaydes win at UFC 304.
I also don’t think we even make it past the first round. I believe they’ll be striking and Blaydes will get lit up by the fast and powerful hands of Aspinall. Honestly, I’m not even sure this fight goes beyond the 2:30 mark of the first. Aspinall will retain and then take a front row seat to Jones – Miocic in November.
Prediction: Tom Aspinall by TKO – Round 1