On the main card of UFC 300, the BMF title is going to be up for grabs. For the first time since the BMF title became a thing, it’s going to be defended. Justin Gaethje (25-4) will defend his BMF championship title against former featherweight champion Max Holloway (25-7).
This is such an interesting matchup for both men considering could be fighting for world championships in their weight classes. Justin Gaethje was being looked at as Islam Makhachev’s next challenger and with Ilia Topuria being the featherweight champion, a path to a title shot at 145 is once again right there for Max Holloway.
That said, they both are fighting on the historic UFC 300 card for the BMF title. Gaethje won the title by knocking out Dustin Poirier with a head kick last July. It was the second straight win for Gaethje after losing his title shot against Charles Oliveira. Over his last nine fights, Gaethje is 7-2 with the only two losses coming in title fights against Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Max Holloway has also won two straight leading to Saturday night. Last August, he knocked out Chan Sung Jung and prior to that, he defeated Arnold Allen by decision last April at UFC Kansas City. Over his last 22 fights, Holloway is 18-4 with three losses to Alexander Volkanovski and one loss at lightweight to Dustin Poirier. This will be his second fight in the lightweight division.
UFC 300 Prediction
When Holloway moved up to lightweight to face off against Dustin Poirier, one thing he struggled with is the strength and power of Poirier. Holloway hung tough throughout the fight, but he got beat up by The Diamond and just couldn’t return with the same amount of power. He’s going to be at a big power disadvantage again on Saturday night.
However, Gaethje can get a little more wild than Poirier. Poirier keeps everything with his striking tight and he was able to land clean on Holloway throughout their fight. Gaethje has that technique, but he can be drawn into a fire fight where he gets wild. If that happens, Holloway can picks his shots from the outside to frustrate the UFC’s BMF title holder.
When this fight was first announced, I felt real comfortable picking Gaethje. However, I think Max Holloway has a good shot here especially considering his durability. That said, I’m still going with Gaethje in this one. I just think he’s going to do more damage which will lead to more rounds going his way at UFC 300. I think Holloway will land more shots throughout the five rounds, but the damage and the win goes to Gaethje.
Prediction: Justin Gaethje by Decision