Tomorrow night on the main card of UFC 291, we are going to see an absolute war in the lightweight division between two OG’s of the game. Former interim lightweight champion Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (25-8) is back as he tries to right the ship against Bobby “King” Green (29-14-1).
Between 2013 and 2019, there might not have been a better lightweight on the planet than Tony Ferguson. El Cucuy set a UFC record for winning 12 straight fights in the division on his way to becoming interim champion. However, he never got a shot at the undisputed title. Several times he was supposed to and the fight always fell through.
The last time it did, he fought for an interim title against Justin Gaethje. Starting with that Gaethje fight, Ferguson has lost five consecutive fights. Granted, it’s all been to elite competition, but the former interim champion is on a horrific skid and needs a win in the worst way.
“King” Bobby Green is looking to get back in the win column himself. In late 2021 and early 2022, he scored incredibly impressive wins over Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast. Following that fight he took a short-notice main event against the now UFC lightweight champ Islam Makhachev. Green was finished in the first round.
He then fought Drew Dober and was doing well until Dober knocked him out in the second round. He fought Jared Gordon back in April, but an accidental headbutt caused the fight to end in a No Contest. As you can tell, but Green and El Cucuy need a win badly at UFC 291.
UFC 291 Prediction
If this fight took place during that six year run for Ferguson, I would have no doubts as to who would win this fight. However, I’m just not sure what we are going to see from the former interim UFC champion tomorrow night. Ferguson didn’t look good against Nate Diaz, but then again, he looked sensational against Michael Chandler before getting knocked out.
Bobby Green is going to talk and he’s going to show off his slick boxing and footwork. You’re going to be entertained by watching this fight. The power advantage and grappling advantage lies with Tony Ferguson, however, the speed and volume of strikes is likely going to favor Green.
If there’s a finish, it’s 100% coming from Tony Ferguson. However, if it’s a close decision, I think the boxing of Green might win out. While it’s a very close matchup, I’m going to lean towards Ferguson here. I think the former champ has at least one more big win in him and I think he gets it at UFC 291 via a scrambled d’arce choke in the second.
Prediction: Tony Ferguson by Submission (D’Arce Choke) – Round 2