UFC Qatar was this past Saturday and it concluded a massive week for the welterweight division. In the co-main event, former champion Belal Muhammad (24-5, 1 NC) took on top contender Ian Machado Garry (17-1).
Both of these men were trying to make the case for a welterweight title shot after all the happenings the week prior at UFC 322. Last week, Islam Makhachev (28-1) became the champion after he completely dominated Jack Della Maddalena (18-3) over the course of 25 minutes.
Earlier that night, Michael Morales (19-0) made his move up to the top of the division when he ran through and stopped Sean Brady (18-2) in the first round. Before that, Carlos Prates (23-7) knocked former champion Leon Edwards (22-6, 1 NC) out cold in the second round. All of this happened while former champion Kamaru Usman (21-4) was sitting in the front row.
At UFC Qatar this past weekend, Shavkat Rakhmonov (19-0) was also sitting in the front row to watch Machado Garry and Muhammad fight. Ultimately, Machado Garry was too much for Muhammad outclassing him for the majority of 15 minutes. Muhammad was tough and had his moments, but it was a clear win for Machado Garry giving him his second win of 2025.
Welterweight Division
With all the happenings of the last week, what should happen with the division? You have a division full of top contenders and everyone wants a shot at the title. However, only one is going to get that shot and I’m going to attempt to book the division the way I think that the UFC will book the division.
Islam Makhachev’s team is wanting Kamaru Usman to get the next shot at the title. Usman is also laying claim to the next title shot using his welterweight legend status. In terms of current merit, Kamaru Usman shouldn’t be getting a shot at the title. He has one win in the last four years and it came against Joaquin Buckley earlier this year.
Makhachev and Usman both have the same representatives thus it makes sense that they are pitching that idea to the UFC. In my opinion, the title shot should go to one of two guys and those two guys are Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.
Machado Garry has done the work this year getting wins over Carlos Prates and Belal Muhammad. However, less than 12 months ago, Machado Garry lost a close decision to the undefeated Rakhmonov. Rakhmonov suffered a knee injury in that bout and that’s why he didn’t fight for the UFC title earlier this year.
Rakhmonov was supposed to fight Belal Muhammad on that December card for the title, but Muhammad got hurt and Machado Garry stepped in. Rakhmonov was then supposed to fight Muhammad in May, but due to his knee injury, JDM got the title shot and he dethroned Muhammad.
UFC’s Plan
Something tells me that activity is going to win out here and I think Ian Machado Garry is going to be the first challenger for Islam Makhachev. Personally, I would go with Rakhmonov because I think there’s something so intriguing about the undefeated Shavkat taking on the unstoppable Islam Makhachev. The more intriguing matchup is Islam – Shavkat for me.
However, I think the UFC will go in a different direction. The following is how I would book the division:
- Islam Makhachev – Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Ian Machado Garry – Kamaru Usman
- Michael Morales – Carlos Prates
- Jack Della Maddalena – Sean Brady
That said, this is how I think the UFC will ultimately book the division:
- Islam Makhachev – Ian Machado Garry
- Shavkat Rakhmonov – Kamaru Usman
- Michael Morales – Carlos Prates
- Jack Della Maddalena – Sean Brady
I honestly don’t have a problem with either plan. I will have a problem if Usman gets the title shot. I’ll know how it happened, but I sincerely hope that they go in a different direction.
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