Breaking down the top 10 breakout candidates (not listed in quality order) for the 2024 MLB season. With plenty of young talent developing at the ground level, baseball is primed for a bright future!
Spencer Torkelson
After an awful rookie campaign, the former first-overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft rebounded with a solid sophomore year. His swing decisions are great, swinging in-zone over 70% of the time with an 80th Percentile Chase Rate, and the raw power is brilliant. He ranked in the 89th Percentile in Barrel Rate (14.1%) and crushed 31 home runs in his age-23 season, having a monster second half where he slugged .498 with 19 home runs. If he can build on that hot end to his season, he’ll live up to the prospect hype he had coming out of college.
Cole Ragans
Projection systems are going to feel quite stupid for having him as a high-3 or low-4 ERA pitcher entering the season, as the southpaw was dominant after being traded to the Kansas City Royals for Aroldis Chapman last summer. In 12 starts down the stretch, he posted a 2.64 ERA and struck out 31.1% of batters faced with a 45.5% groundball rate, displaying a dominant fastball that has reached 100 MPH before. Paired with an elite changeup and some excellent breaking balls, you have a pitcher who could get Cy Young votes in 2024.
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Tarik Skubal
The other trendy AL Central lefty has been Tarik Skubal, who returned from injury to post a 2.80 ERA and 32.9% strikeout rate. What makes his profile even more impressive is the minuscule 4.5% walk rate and 0.45 HR/9 rate, a product of his aggressive approach in the zone and over 51% groundball rate. His fastball-changeup combination is deadly, and there are reports of him hitting 100 MPH in Spring Training. Few pitchers in the league can combine damage prevention and elite strikeout-to-walk rates, and Skubal is one of them.
Nick Pivetta
After adding a sweeper midseason, Nick Pivetta became one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and that’s not at all an exaggeration. He began consistently using it on June 28th, and from that point forward, he was 16th in ERA- (74) and second in strikeout-to-walk rate (29.4%), and there’s a legitimate chance that he could be an All-Star caliber pitcher now that he’ll return to a starting role. A UCL injury to Lucas Giolito places even more pressure on Pivetta to step up, and we believe he will.
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Anthony Volpe
Last season was a huge positive on defense, as Anthony Volpe posted +16 Defensive Runs Saved and won the AL Gold Glove at shortstop. That being said, his sub-.300 OBP and 84 wRC+ have raised massive questions about his bat, and I foresee him taking the leap that Spencer Torkelson did after his first season in the league. The Yankees need Volpe to become that steady top-of-the-lineup presence as there’s uncertainty at that part of the lineup, but his flatter swing in Spring Training could have the exact results he’s looking for.
Jose Caballero
A Minor League regular entering his age-26 season, Jose Caballero posted a modest 96 wRC+ and .343 OBP in his debut season at the MLB level. Most people overlooked his addition, but the Tampa Bay Rays are about to turn him into one of the better shortstops in all of baseball. His right-handed swing needed to be adjusted to pull the ball in the air more…so the Rays emphasized exactly that in Spring Training., His +5.3 BsR and elite defense in the infield should make him a 4+ WAR player if he can provide above-average offense, and it’ll be another steal for that amazing front office.
Miguel Vargas
What Miguel Vargas lacks in athleticism, he makes up for with an incredible foundation at the plate. He struggled in his first season, posting an 85 wRC+ in 81 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but his low chase rate and high in-zone swing rate coupled with game power should be better now that he’s fully healed from his wrist injury could result in a 110-115 wRC+. The Dodgers will have him play more outfield in 2024, but the tools and skillset are truly strong enough for him to live up to projections that universally believe he’ll be above average.
Bo Naylor
One of the most under-appreciated rookie campaigns came from top-catching prospect Bo Naylor, who was incredible in his 67-game debut with the Cleveland Guardians. He crushed 11 home runs with a 124 wRC+, and the defense was solid as well, with +2 Fielding Run-Value in his limited sample of work. He’ll need to work on his ability to manage the running game, but his great feel for the strike zone and lofty swing could result in the rare combination of good defense and a good bat at the catching position.
Hunter Brown
The Houston Astros will be without Justin Verlander on Opening Day, but they still have incredible talent in the form of Hunter Brown, who could step up in a huge way. Last year was an unfortunate year as he boasted a strong strikeout-to-walk rate (18.5%) and groundball rate (52.4%), but a 1.5 HR/9 presented massive issues for him. He’s working on a slider that could help his profile against right-handed batters, who had a .498 SLG% against him, and I think his nasty stuff will finally translate into a frontline starter in 2024.
Sean Manaea
David Stearns will have one of the best-value signings of the winter in the form of Sean Manaea, who added a sweeper last year and is working on a cutter as well. After he started throwing the whirly-breaking ball, he posted a 3.60 ERA and 17.6% strikeout-to-walk rate as a swingman, and the Mets could reap huge benefits if that can translate as a full-time starter. His velocity as a starter will likely sit between 92-94 on the radar gun, but a sweeper-changeup-cutter profile could result in plenty of soft contact and some strikeouts as he looks to rebound his value in a walk year.