At first glance, Phillies‘ Kyle Schwarber does not look like your typical leadoff hitter, he profiles more like a middle linebacker. Although he does not possess the physical characteristics of a guy who hits in the one spot, his numbers justify him being there.
In 503 plate appearances in the leadoff spot in his career, he’s got a .348 OBP and now is the record holder for the most home runs from the leadoff spot in a single season in baseball history. So what’s the problem? There is no problem, he’s mashing a .956 OPS from that spot but could be more useful to his team batting further in the lineup.
Trea Turner will determine the leadoff spot this season
The Phillies have not gotten the Trea Turner production they paid for in December of 2022. After signing an 11-year, $300 million contract, Turner has a .328 OBP and a 116 OPS+ in his two years in Philadelphia, nowhere close to his numbers in Los Angeles. The Phillies would love to plug Turner into the leadoff spot so they can reap the benefits of Schwarber’s slugging prowess and in effect, protect Bryce Harper.
That is going to be completely reliant on Turner and his production this season. Phillies manager Rob Thomson already said he will be experimenting with the lineup during spring training which will begin on February 22nd. If Turner can bump up his OBP numbers about 20 points, exactly where Schwarber’s numbers were, then the Phillies would benefit greatly from his speed on the bases and would put more pressure on pitchers.
Could Bryson Stott hit in the leadoff spot this season?
Stott would also be a decent candidate to leadoff for the Phillies if he wasn’t a left-handed hitter. Rob Thomson was asked about this last week on The Phillies Show podcast.
“The thing is, we’re so left-handed and you want Harper and you want Schwarber getting as many at-bats as you can. If you put Stott in the leadoff spot, now you’re really left-handed at the top. It might create a problem, even if you’re facing a right-hander. Everybody’s got three lefties in the ‘pen, it seems. They’ll just start matching up on you.”
It would appear Thomson is going to try and go left, right, left, right as much as he can in this lineup. We could see Harper or Schwarber in the two spot assuming Turner is leading off, followed by Bohm, a right-handed bat. Listen, I’ve never complained about the top of the order unless it’s October and they’ve gone ice cold, which has happened one too many times.
What I want to see is more production from the bottom of the order. When you’re one through five hitters are struggling, you need the bottom of the order to pick them up. Last season, the number eight hitters combined for a .300 OBP while the nine hitters were even worse with a .279 OBP. It is going to be on the shoulders of Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh to fix that this season.
Can the Phillies get vintage Trea Turner this season?
All you have to do is look at the back of the baseball card to see the makeup of Trea Turner. We know what’s inside of him, we just need to get the production we saw in Washington and Los Angeles for nine seasons. To his credit, he hasn’t been given a fair shot at leading off, he’s only done it 15 times and has a .299 OBP. If Turner can succeed in this spot, it may unlock a new facet to the top of the lineup. Instead of the solo shots we’ve become accustomed to from Schwarber in the first inning, they could turn into three-run homers. Time will tell.