The New York Yankees are heading into a pivotal offseason with several franchise-shaping decisions ahead, and one of the biggest involves Trent Grisham. While Cody Bellinger’s future will dominate the headlines, Grisham’s breakout season has forced his way into the conversation.
The 28-year-old is in the middle of his best year as a pro, and with free agency around the corner, the Yankees must decide if this is the beginning of his prime—or simply a perfectly timed surge.
A career year at the perfect time
Grisham has been one of the quiet revelations of the Yankees’ 2025 season. He’s hitting .238/.347/.474 with a career-high 33 home runs, 71 RBIs, and a 130 wRC+. For context, that means he’s been 30 percent better than the average MLB hitter this season—a drastic improvement from the inconsistencies that have defined his career up to this point.
The timing, of course, can’t be ignored. Players often see their production peak in a contract year, and front offices tend to view those numbers with a hint of skepticism. The Yankees will have to weigh whether this version of Grisham is sustainable or a short-lived anomaly.
Power metrics tell a different story
What makes Grisham’s breakout season more compelling is the underlying data. He ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate, showing elite discipline by rarely expanding the zone. On top of that, he sits in the 90th percentile in barrel rate, meaning when he does connect, he’s producing loud contact.
Perhaps the strangest stat from his season: his last 16 extra-base hits have all been home runs. No doubles, no triples, just pure power. That’s not just unusual—it’s almost unheard of. It suggests Grisham has found a formula for consistently lifting the ball and punishing mistakes in the strike zone.
Defensive regression adds a wrinkle
While his bat has carried him, Grisham’s defense hasn’t been the same. Once a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder, his defensive metrics have dipped this season, making him more of a one-dimensional player. For the Yankees, this raises the stakes. If Grisham’s glove isn’t providing the same value, the decision to invest heavily in his bat becomes riskier.
Still, his ability to change a game with one swing makes him valuable in any lineup. For a Yankees team built on star power and power hitting, he fits the mold.
The qualifying offer factor
The Yankees are almost certain to extend Grisham a qualifying offer, which projects to be about $22–23 million for a single season (via Joel Sherman of the NY Post). That number, based on the average salary of the top 125 players in baseball, forces other teams to surrender draft capital if they pursue him.
For Grisham, accepting the offer might make sense. It would give him a hefty payday while allowing him another season to prove that his breakout wasn’t a fluke. If he produces again, he could enter free agency in an even stronger position.
Lets be honest, he will opt for a long-term deal if it crosses his desk.
Yankees’ alternatives if Grisham walks
The Yankees aren’t short on options. They could apply the qualifying offer elsewhere—Luke Weaver and Devin Williams are candidates, while Bellinger could opt out of his $20 million player option, making him eligible as well. But none of those scenarios carry the intrigue of Grisham, who at just 28 years old is squarely in his athletic prime. Bellinger will get more attractive deals, and the Yankees should be looking to retain him at all costs.
The Yankees have to ask themselves: is this the new Trent Grisham, a late-blooming star who’s found his stride, or is it a contract-year mirage? That answer could shape how aggressive they get this winter.
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