The New York Yankees will face the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday. With Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans having pitched against the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card round, the Royals are set to start Michael Wacha in the series opener.
Wacha’s 2024 Season at a Glance
Michael Wacha has pitched 166.2 innings this year, posting a 3.35 ERA, 7.83 strikeouts per nine innings, a 77.1% left-on-base rate, and a 38.6% ground ball rate. While his 4.05 expected ERA (xERA) suggests he has been somewhat lucky at times, Wacha has enjoyed one of his better seasons. He won 13 games over 29 starts, and his off-speed pitches have been elite, ranking in the 99th percentile in off-speed run value.
Wacha’s pitch mix includes a change-up, four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, and curveball. His change-up has been particularly effective, holding opposing batters to a .169 average and a .312 slugging percentage. However, his fastball, which averages 93.6 mph, has been more hittable, allowing a .279 batting average and a .449 slugging percentage.
How the Yankees Can Exploit Wacha’s Fastball
The key for the Yankees will be to sit on Wacha’s fastball and wait for opportunities. Although his change-up creates a lot of deception, if the Yankees can read his four-seam fastball fundamentals, they can jump on his weaker pitch and put early pressure on him.
Game 1 is a must-win for New York, especially with tougher matchups ahead. The Yankees will have to face two of the best starters in the game after Wacha, so capitalizing on this pitching advantage is crucial.
Yankees’ Pitching Rotation for the ALDS
Gerrit Cole is set to open the series for the Yankees, followed by Carlos Rodon in Game 2. Manager Aaron Boone has yet to decide between Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt for Game 3.
Cole has been excellent over the past few weeks, although he has only pitched 95 innings this season after an elbow injury in training camp. Despite the limited workload, Cole remains an elite starter, and the Yankees are confident leaning on him as their ace. This year, Cole has slightly reduced his reliance on his four-seam fastball, using his knuckle curve more frequently and incorporating a cutter at 16.3% usage, primarily as a strikeout pitch.
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Game 1: Yankees vs. Wacha — A Key Matchup
Game 1 heavily favors the Yankees for several reasons. Not only do they perform better against right-handed pitching, but Wacha has shown some inconsistencies recently. In September, he posted a 2.60 ERA over 27.2 innings, but he allowed three earned runs against the Washington Nationals in his final start of the season.
With their ace on the mound and a solid plan against Wacha, the Yankees are well-positioned to take an early lead in the series. They’ll need to secure the win in Game 1 to avoid facing the pressure of going up against Kansas City’s top pitchers, Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, in Games 2 and 3.