The New York Yankees have poured resources into their bullpen, but the unit continues to unravel in the season’s most crucial stretch. Despite big-name acquisitions, the group remains inconsistent, and one of its most trusted arms has suddenly become a liability.
Investments that haven’t paid off
This was supposed to be a reloaded relief corps. The Yankees traded for Jake Bird, Camilo Doval, and David Bednar at the deadline, adding to an offseason headlined by the arrival of Devin Williams. On paper, that mix should have stabilized late-inning chaos.
Instead, the bullpen has remained shaky, often turning comfortable leads into stressful finishes. No reliever embodies this slide more than left-hander Tim Hill, whose recent struggles have undercut what had been a steady season.
Hill’s numbers tell the story
For most of the year, Hill looked like a dependable piece, carrying a 3.22 ERA across 64.1 innings. But the cracks have widened since the All-Star break. Over his last 21 innings, Hill’s ERA has ballooned to 4.71, leaving the Yankees exposed against left-handed bats when they can least afford it.
The problem is, Hill has 15 “meltdowns,” per Fangraphs. Meltdowns occur when a pitcher’s outing reduces his team’s chances of winning by at least 6%.
The issues aren’t subtle. Hill’s strikeout rate sits at just 4.9 per nine innings—a figure nearly unheard of in today’s power-driven game. For comparison, the league average sits around double that mark. While Hill’s game has always relied on inducing weak contact, not missing bats, the margin for error has thinned dramatically.
His home run rate has spiked to 1.12 per nine, nearly quadruple his 2024 pace. Combine that with a noticeable dip in velocity—down nearly a full mile per hour—and the profile of a reliable late-inning arm begins to crumble.
Why Hill’s struggles matter more than most
Every bullpen needs a left-handed stabilizer, someone who can neutralize tough lefty sluggers in leverage spots. For the Yankees, Hill was supposed to be that piece, the counter to elite lefty bats.
But if he can’t be trusted to execute in those moments, manager Aaron Boone loses one of his most important matchup weapons. It’s the equivalent of going into a playoff chess match without your queen—suddenly, every move feels like a scramble.
A fragile equation
The Yankees don’t lack for bullpen talent. Williams has recently found his stride, Bednar has shown flashes of dominance, and Doval still has one of the nastiest arsenals in baseball. But the unit’s overall success hinges on balance.
If Hill falters, Boone is forced to overuse right-handers in spots where a lefty is essential, and that imbalance could unravel the entire postseason blueprint.
October is around the corner
With the postseason just weeks away, the Yankees need Tim Hill to rediscover his early-season form. The margin for error in October is razor-thin, and every bullpen piece must hold up under the spotlight.
For now, Hill represents the biggest question mark—and the Yankees’ October fate may hinge on whether he can turn things around in time.
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