I’ve already discussed what I believed to be the critical phase in Spencer Jones‘ development, as the Yankees will have to decide on whether to place him on their 40-man roster or not after this season. The big takeaway I had regarding the young outfielder was that hitting the ball hard and in the air would be the most important progression to make, as his strikeouts will likely always be an issue for him in his pro career. Strikeouts are bad because they’re outs, but they can be outweighed by generating tons of production in the power department and consistently hitting XBHs.
On Yankees Hot Stove, Spencer Jones specifically mentioned focusing on trying to hit the ball hard and in the air, with the changes he’s made to his swing and mechanics tailoring to a power-centric approach. He altered his mechanics in September resulting in five home runs in his final 18 regular and postseason games, and if progressions have been made with his ability to generate loft, we could be looking at a fun year for the tall outfielder.
Spencer Jones Honing in On Game Power, Yankees Should Be Excited
One of the key metrics I highlighted regarding Spencer Jones last season was his 20.7% HR/FB%, an indication that when he gets the ball in the air, good things happen. While he hit plenty of line drives last season, Jones had a 29.2% FB%, one of the lowest marks for a qualified hitter in Double-A. The Yankees need him to lift the ball more if he wants to take advantage of his monstrous home-run power, and that’s a huge part of his offseason training for this winter:
“I’ve been working a bunch on some new patterns some new drills, trying some feels that I was doing in college when I was hitting the ball real hard and hitting the ball in the air…I’m excited for people to see it in the games” – Spencer Jones
It would be a massive development if Spencer Jones was able to continue his slugging trends from the end of the season, as his batted ball data improved over the final month of the season. His groundball rate dropped to 36.2% while his flyball rate improved to 38.3%, fueling a stretch where he slugged .620, but just as importantly, his strikeout rate fell from 36.8% to 31.6%.
That’s still very high and a concern at the next level, but taller hitters tend to take more time making adjustments and getting acclimated to the professional level. Jones not only has that taller frame to overcome mechanically, but a lack of experience hitting with a wooden bat, as he barely played summer ball during his college years. While some of the people drafted in the same year had dozens of games playing in those summer ball leagues, Jones had just 25 games.
Patience is a must for some of these taller sluggers, even if they’re coming out of college, and Matt Wallner is the player I keep referencing when talking about Spencer Jones’ development.
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Wallner had a 131 wRC+ in High-A during his age-23 season, not making his Double-A debut until his age-24 season, and he had similar flaws in his game to Jones. Wallner’s 33.3% K% as a 23-year-old in High-A would have him crucified if he was a prospect in the Yankees’ organization, and his 35% flyball rate wouldn’t be enough to overcome an inability to make contact.
Fast-forward to 2025, and he has 580 trips to the plate as a big-leaguer with a 144 wRC+ and .500 SLG%, which the Yankees would take in a heartbeat from Spencer Jones. Matt Wallner never figured out how to make a lot of contact, running a 34.5% K% in the Majors with a 72.3% Zone Contact%, but he’s mastered the art of launching the ball in the air with authority, resulting in high barrel rates and tons of damage output.
Spencer Jones turns 24 in May, and if he takes the leap that Wallner did in his age-24 season where he was able to consistently get into position to launch the ball in the air, we could be looking at a 2025 debut. I wouldn’t rely on Jones making it to the Majors if I were the Yankees, but with how excellent of a defender the 2022 first-round pick is, the upside of being a regular contributor on a World Series contender is still there.
The sky is the limit for Spencer Jones if he maintains the improved launch angles in 2025, and if his segment on Hot Stove was an indication of his confidence in his ability to generate loft, then we could be in for a treat.