When the Yankees traded top pitching prospect Hayden Wesneski to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Scott Effross back in 2022, the move was heralded as a win-now gamble.
Effross, with his funky low-arm slot and impressive metrics, seemed like a perfect bullpen addition for a team chasing October glory. At the time, he sported a 2.54 ERA over 56.2 innings between Chicago and New York, demonstrating the kind of reliability the Yankees coveted.
But as baseball so often proves, even the best-laid plans can go awry. Effross went down with an elbow injury late in the season, eventually requiring Tommy John surgery. Two years later, the Yankees are still trying to figure out if the right-hander can rediscover the magic that made him such an intriguing acquisition.
Post-Surgery Setbacks
Effross returned to action in 2024, but the results were far from encouraging. Over just 3.1 big-league innings, he posted a 5.40 ERA, struggling to regain his previous dominance. His strikeout rate, once a key part of his arsenal, took a noticeable dip. The good news? His ground ball rate remained strong at 60%, suggesting he still has the ability to induce weak contact.
In Triple-A, Effross showed some promise, pitching 32.1 innings with a 2.78 ERA. However, his 7.79 strikeouts per nine were a far cry from his pre-injury numbers, and his 70.5% left-on-base rate left something to be desired. While the metrics hinted at potential value, they also underscored how much work remains for Effross to return to his old self.
The Velocity Conundrum
One of the biggest hurdles Effross faces is the lingering impact of Tommy John surgery on his velocity. His unique low release point—once a weapon that added deception to his pitches—may now be working against him as he tries to rebuild his mechanics. Without the sharpness and bite that made him effective, hitters have been able to barrel him up more frequently, a troubling trend the Yankees hope to reverse.
The team will be watching closely this spring to see if Effross can regain even a tick of his lost velocity. A small improvement could make a big difference, especially if it allows his secondary pitches to play up the way they did prior to his surgery.
A Trade That’s Still Unsettled
The Wesneski-for-Effross trade hasn’t exactly panned out for either side. Wesneski showed flashes of promise for the Cubs in 2024, recording a 3.86 ERA over 67.2 innings. His slider, in particular, has emerged as an elite weapon. But like Effross, Wesneski has yet to establish himself as a consistent major-league contributor. Up to this point, the Cubs have won the trade, though.
For the Yankees, the trade still represents an unanswered question. Effross’s ability to bounce back could tip the scales, turning a risky move into a calculated victory. If he can regain some of his pre-injury form, he could become a valuable bullpen piece—one capable of eating innings and generating outs in high-leverage situations.
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Spring Training: A Crucial Test
With spring training fast approaching, Effross’s status will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow. The Yankees are in desperate need of bullpen depth, especially with injuries always looming in the background. Effross doesn’t need to be the player he was in 2022 to contribute meaningfully, but he does need to show signs of progression.
For now, Effross remains a lottery ticket. The Yankees haven’t written him off just yet, and given the unpredictable nature of pitching recoveries, they’re hoping the best is still to come. If he can find his groove again, he could turn what’s been a frustrating chapter into an unlikely comeback story.