The Yankees received a welcome update this weekend: Clarke Schmidt has officially started a rehab assignment and could rejoin the starting rotation by the end of this upcoming week. His return adds a spark to a staff that’s been stretched thin early in the season, but it also creates a roster crunch—and someone’s going to get the short straw.
Right now, it’s down to either rookie Will Warren or veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco, and while both have shown flashes, there’s a strong argument that Warren might be the one who needs a bit more seasoning.
Will Warren Showing Promise, But Not Enough Consistency
Warren has made a few intriguing starts so far, flashing the kind of upside that got him on the Yankees’ radar to begin with. However, the results have been uneven. He currently sports a 6.00 ERA across nine innings, and the deeper you dive, the more the concerns start to show.
He’s striking out batters at a solid 9.00 per nine rate, and his 50% ground ball rate is promising. But he’s walking five per nine, and his left-on-base rate sits at just 56.6%, a red flag that points to poor sequencing and difficulty escaping jams.
The issue seems to ramp up the longer he stays in a game. Warren’s velocity starts to fade after a few innings, and with it, his command. His fastball velocity ranks in just the 22nd percentile, and hitters are feasting when he leaves pitches up in the zone.
The sinker, in particular, has been a problem. It’s allowed a .333 batting average and a .667 slugging percentage—numbers that make it a liability rather than a weapon. On the other hand, his sweeper and four-seamer have been far more effective, but no starter can thrive long-term leaning on only two consistent offerings.
Clarke Schmidt’s Return Comes With Pressure
Schmidt’s looming return complicates things for Aaron Boone. The Yankees are desperate to stabilize their rotation, and Schmidt brings experience and upside. Last season, he posted a 2.85 ERA over 85.1 innings, struck out 9.81 batters per nine, and maintained strong metrics across the board, including an 80% left-on-base rate and 40.5% ground ball rate.
With the rotation already down Gerrit Cole and waiting on Luis Gil, Boone can’t afford to roll the dice too long on inconsistency. While Carrasco is older and clearly not in his prime, he at least offers a more predictable veteran presence.
That leaves Warren, a promising arm, possibly heading back to Triple-A for a bit more polish. If the Yankees believe in his long-term upside—and they clearly do—they may choose to protect him by taking him out of the fire before the damage outweighs the experience.
Schmidt is close. The clock is ticking. And Boone will have a decision to make very soon.