Yankees’ powerful prospect could become middle-of-the-order bat in 2025

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Last season Rafael Flores climbed the Yankees’ prospect boards with an impressive 2024 campaign, smashing 21 home runs in 122 games with a 149 wRC+ and .495 SLG%. The right-handed hitting catcher played 38 games at first base this past season, and with the Yankees having no clearcut answer at the position long-term, Flores could find himself competing for that spot sooner than most think. Once an undrafted free agent whom every team in baseball passed on 20 different times, Rafael Flores has displayed some serious skills at the plate that could translate in the big leagues.

With some of the best raw power in the Minor Leagues and an improving feel for generating flyballs, Rafael Flores could become a real force in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup for the long haul.

Why Rafael Flores Should Be on the Yankees’ Radar

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Credit: Patrick Oehler/Poughkeepsie Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rafael Flores was one of the scariest hitters a pitcher could face at either High-A or Double-A this past season, and the Yankees have converted someone who everyone passed on in the 2022 MLB Draft into a real prospect. This isn’t some flash in the pan that you’d expect to wither away a year later, it’s a leap in batted ball quality that might allow Flores to become a real force in a contender’s lineup. While he’s not ready for the big leagues right now, 2024 saw him make some massive strides toward eventually reaching the Majors, as he crushed the ball with serious authority.

After being promoted to Double-A and making his debut with the Somerset Patriots on June 26th, Rafael Flores immediately became one of the top hitters at the level. He led Double-A in home runs (15) and was eighth in OPS (.878) among hitters with at least 200 Plate Appearances, as there were some real changes between High-A and Double-A that saw him get even better after being promoted. Prospects typically struggle when making the leap to the penultimate MiLB level, but Rafael Flores seemed completely unphased by the tougher competition.

Making more contact is hard, but doing so while cutting your groundball rate and pulling the ball more is just flat-out impressive. He was immediately rewarded with a 150 wRC+ in Double-A, and his success continued in their playoff run as he clobbered two home runs and slugged over .600 in four games. Hitters who can pull the ball in the air consistently while not having massive strikeout issues are coveted in the league, but some of them have the flaw of not generating high exit velocity numbers.

Take Cody Bellinger for example, who can hit 20+ home runs a season but has an average exit velocity lower than Alex Verdugo’s over the past two seasons. Generating game power isn’t all about raw power, and in some cases, a hitter’s ability to get the ball in the air consistently is even more important than their exit velocity numbers, but Rafael Flores isn’t just a hitter with good spray angles. Flores has tons of juice in his bat, as he’s one of the more powerful hitters in Minor League Baseball.

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There’s a lot to digest here; first and foremost, this data wouldn’t translate perfectly to the Major Leagues because pitchers are better at generating soft contact and commanding their secondaries, but this is still elite. Rafael Flores has a rare ability to do damage when he puts bat-on-ball, and when coupled with the aforementioned improvements to his launch angle and spray angle, you have a hitter who could end up being a real threat at the next level. These adjustments came with improved contact rates, and if he’s able to consistently barrel the ball to left field, he’ll be a home run machine.

With a 23% Chase Rate last season, Rafael Flores is a patient hitter with a powerful swing that can not only generate high exit velocities but also consistently hit the ball where it has the best chance of leaving the yard. Flores has enough raw power that if he didn’t pull his flyballs he could still hit home runs, but by being able to pull them, his upside could be somewhere in the 25-30 HR range. The Yankees’ player development has improved at sharpening a hitter’s spray angles and getting them to do more damage on contact, and Rafael Flores is the brainchild of fine-tuning their process.

Here’s the scary thing; Rafael Flores isn’t some super senior murdering the competition, he’s a relatively inexperienced bat who played JUCO ball for his entire collegiate career. He was a little younger than the average position player at the Double-A level, and in 2025 he’ll be 24 for the MiLB and MLB seasons, and the Yankees won’t have to place him on their 40-man roster until next offseason. This is an appropriately aged Double-A hitter who likely had less collegiate and summer ball experience than most bats coming out of college, and in two years he’s become a hitting machine.

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It’s unclear whether he’ll stick at catcher long-term or not, but since he’s a fringe defender there with some framing abilities, I’m sure the Yankees will figure out how to have him hold his own there. While it’s been a struggle with some other position groups, catchers have somehow become the Yankees’ bread-and-butter on the position player side of the ball, as they’ve been able to improve their offensive output while developing some premium defenders. If he slides over to first base, it’ll be a seamless fit given his taller frame and powerful swing.

To some people, Rafael Flores is a non-top-100 prospect and therefore isn’t someone to create much hype around, but his bat is for real. He does damage on contact, makes good swing decisions, pulls the ball in the air, and can make contact at a palatable rate. The Yankees should be very excited to see him in Spring Training, and if he’s healthy I’d be shocked to see him not start behind the dish for their Spring Breakout Game.

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