The Yankees needed a strong performance in the World Series against Walker Buehler, but their efforts fell short despite what seemed like a favorable matchup. Buehler delivered a stellar outing, pitching six innings, allowing just two hits, no earned runs, and striking out seven batters. His playoff dominance continued, with zero runs allowed over his final three appearances, underscoring his efficiency when it mattered most.
Analyzing Buehler’s Pitch Arsenal
Buehler’s pitching arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, cutter, knuckle curve, and sinker. While his fastball clocks in at an average of 95 mph, it proved to be a challenging pitch for him this past season, with opposing hitters batting .342 against it and slugging .696.
This resulted in a 5.38 ERA over 75.1 innings in 2024, with 7.65 strikeouts per nine innings, a 70.3% left-on-base rate, and a 45.5% ground ball rate. Despite these struggles, Buehler has shown flashes of brilliance, excelling in high-pressure scenarios.
Potential Fit with the Yankees
Buehler’s track record suggests untapped potential that the Yankees might be able to harness under the guidance of pitching coach Matt Blake. With proper adjustments, particularly focusing on refining his fastball, Buehler could regain some of his past form. Notably, in 2021, he posted a 2.47 ERA over 207.2 innings, with 9.19 strikeouts per nine, an 80.9% left-on-base rate, and a 44.7% ground ball rate, proving he has the ability to dominate when at his best.
Cost-Efficient Option for the Yankees?
At 30 years old, Buehler could provide the Yankees with a young and efficient starting pitcher if they are willing to take a chance. His recent struggles might lower his market value, presenting an opportunity for a team like the Yankees to secure him on a potentially cost-effective deal.
Projected Contract and Risk Assessment
Projections suggest Buehler could command a three-year, $54 million contract, averaging $18 million per season. While he hasn’t fully regained his pre-Tommy John surgery form, his postseason success offers hope for a rebound. ESPN’s Kylie McDaniel envisions Buehler as a finesse No. 3 starter rather than a power-based ace, noting his improved performances late in 2024.
“Buehler underwent some changes in his return from Tommy John surgery, likely making him more of a finesse No. 3 starter than the power-based ace he was in the past. That said, he started to find himself late in the season and into the playoffs.”
Late-Season Surge and Upside
Buehler’s late-season resurgence in 2024 provides optimism regarding his ability to return to form. However, the Dodgers opted not to extend him a $21 million qualifying offer, signaling a reluctance to invest heavily in his services, especially with Gavin Stone and Tyler Glasnow set to bolster their rotation.
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Evaluating the Yankees’ Options
While Buehler presents an intriguing option, the Yankees may be better served by allocating their resources elsewhere. Spending slightly more on a consistent and dominant starter like Blake Snell could yield a higher return, providing a more immediate impact and stability in their rotation. Nonetheless, Buehler’s potential resurgence and postseason pedigree make him a tempting target, albeit one fraught with some risk.