On a seemingly uneventful day in early July, Yankees rookie first baseman Ben Rice delivered a performance to remember, launching three home runs and driving in seven RBIs in a resounding victory over the Boston Red Sox.
It was a moment that showcased Rice’s potential, suggesting he had the tools to thrive at the major league level. Yet, as the season unfolded, the challenges of being a rookie caught up with him. With Anthony Rizzo sidelined due to injury, Rice was thrust into a pivotal role, learning to play first base in the big leagues on the fly.
A Season of Growing Pains
Rice’s rookie campaign was marked by flashes of brilliance but also inconsistency. Over 50 games and 178 plate appearances, the 25-year-old slashed .171/.264/.349, tallying seven home runs, 23 RBIs, and a 73 wRC+. His 27% strikeout rate was concerning, though his 11.2% walk rate showed promise. Despite the underwhelming surface stats, Rice’s batted-ball data painted a more optimistic picture.
He posted a .235 expected batting average (xBA) and a .459 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), indicating that he was often a victim of poor luck. General manager Brian Cashman recently praised Rice’s bat, calling it “real,” a testament to the underlying potential hidden in his numbers. Rice excelled against fastballs but struggled with breaking and off-speed pitches, a common hurdle for young hitters adjusting to major league pitching.
Promising Metrics and Upside
Despite his struggles, Rice showed encouraging signs at the plate. He ranked in the top percentiles in barrel rate, chase rate, and walk rate, metrics that suggest a disciplined approach and the ability to make hard contact. With continued development in his plate discipline and hard-hit rates, Rice has the potential to become a long-term solution at first base for the Yankees.
The short right porch at Yankee Stadium is tailor-made for Rice’s left-handed swing, giving him the perfect setting to unlock his power potential. However, his inexperience at the MLB level meant regression was inevitable. For the Yankees, the question becomes whether to commit to Rice and allow him to grow or pursue a more immediate upgrade at first base.
Balancing Risk and Opportunity
The Yankees face a critical decision this offseason. Should they invest heavily in a proven first baseman, or opt for a more economical solution while giving Rice room to develop? Carlos Santana, a veteran switch-hitter who just won a Gold Glove, presents a cost-effective option. Pairing Santana with Rice would provide the Yankees with a blend of experience and upside, while allowing the youngster to learn from a seasoned professional.
Defensively, Rice has shown flashes but remains a work in progress. Over 349 innings at first base, he posted -1 defensive run saved, a mark that suggests he wasn’t a liability but has room for growth. Rice’s renowned work ethic could help him refine his defensive skills, but the Yankees must weigh his potential against their immediate need for a reliable presence at the position.
The Bigger Picture
Much of the Yankees’ offseason strategy hinges on how they allocate their resources. If they make significant investments in the outfield by acquiring a player like Cody Bellinger or bolster the infield with a high-priced addition like Alex Bregman, they may lean toward a more budget-friendly approach at first base. This could mean a tandem of Rice and Santana or another veteran stopgap.
Alternatively, if the Yankees opt to prioritize immediate production, Rice could become a trade chip. His stock is on the rise, and moving him now could net a return that bolsters other areas of the roster. At 25, Rice’s clock is ticking, and the Yankees must decide if his future lies in pinstripes or elsewhere. For a team eager to return to the World Series, every move carries weight, and Rice’s role in their plans remains a pivotal question.