Yankees’ Ben Rice is showing us metrics that will make your jaw drop

I’m telling you right now: Ben Rice is about to get a tremendous amount of respect from the rest of Major League Baseball, and Monday’s performance against the Pirates was just the opening act. The Yankees‘ new everyday first baseman went 2-for-3 with two RBI and a walk in Tampa’s 6-2 spring training win, picking up exactly where he left off after tweaking his neck days earlier. This wasn’t some fluky spring hit parade either—Rice smoked a 100.4 mph two-run single through the right side in the second inning that perfectly encapsulated what makes him dangerous.

Here’s what separates Rice from your typical power-over-everything first baseman: he hit .255/.337/.499 with 26 homers last season while maintaining an 18.9% strikeout rate and posting a 133 wRC+. That’s not just power. That’s professional hitting with elite underlying metrics that scream sustainability.

The Statcast Profile Is Absolutely Ridiculous

Let me break down why Rice’s 2025 season wasn’t luck—it was a coming-out party backed by some of the best batted ball data in baseball. His 97th percentile xwOBA (.394) ranked among the elite in the league, meaning he was hitting the ball harder and more consistently than 97% of qualified hitters. The exit velocity sits at 93.3 mph (95th percentile), the barrel rate checks in at 15.4% (92nd percentile), and the hard-hit percentage lands at 56.1% (97th percentile).

That’s not getting lucky on a few home runs. That’s elite contact quality, game after game, against Major League pitching.

The xSLG of .557 (97th percentile) tells you everything you need to know about his power projection: it’s real, it’s sustainable, and it’s only going to get better as he matures into his prime years at age 27. The swing decisions back it up too—90th percentile sweet-spot percentage (39.3%), 89th percentile squared-up rate (31.2%), and a 91st percentile chase rate (21.2%) that shows advanced plate discipline for a power hitter.

Paul Goldschmidt Is the Backup—Rice Is the Guy

The Yankees made it official this winter: Ben Rice is the everyday first baseman in 2026, and Paul Goldschmidt, despite his Hall of Fame pedigree, settles into a backup role. That’s not a knock on Goldschmidt—it’s a testament to how good Rice was last season and how much the front office believes in his ceiling. Rice is going to hit in the top four of the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup, just like he finished last season, because his bat plays against both righties and lefties.

Monday’s spring debut confirmed what we already knew: the neck tweak was nothing, and Rice is locked in. That 100.4 mph two-run single wasn’t a headline-worthy exit velocity by July standards, but it was professional, controlled, and exactly what the Yankees needed in a big second inning. The walk in his other plate appearance showed patience and selectivity—traits that don’t show up in spring training box scores but matter in October.

The Power With Patience Formula That Wins Championships

Here’s the uncomfortable truth about the Yankees’ lineup: it still leans too heavily on streaky, all-or-nothing power. Judge is a monster, but after him, the consistency drops off. Rice offers something different—steadier production, better bat-to-ball skills, and the kind of underlying metrics that translate to playoff success. He’s not trying to hit 50 home runs; he’s trying to hit .270 with 30 bombs and get on base at a .350 clip.

That approach plays in October. Power with patience always does.

The strikeout rate is what really jumps off the page for me. An 18.9% K rate (65th percentile) for a guy with 26-homer power is borderline elite in today’s game, where most power hitters are whiffing 25-30% of the time. Rice isn’t selling out for exit velocity—he’s making contact, barreling baseballs, and letting the power play naturally. The 9.4% walk rate (63rd percentile) shows advanced pitch recognition, and combined with his low chase rate, you’re looking at a hitter who forces pitchers to come into the zone.

Rice Is Like Ordering a Steak and Getting Lobster for Free

Here’s my analogy: Ben Rice is like going to a steakhouse, ordering a ribeye, and the waiter bringing you a ribeye with a side of lobster tail you didn’t pay for. You came for the power (26 homers, .499 slugging), but you’re getting elite contact quality, low strikeouts, and advanced plate discipline on top of it. Most power hitters make you sacrifice something—contact rates, walks, defensive value. Rice gives you everything without asking you to compromise.

That’s why I’m convinced he’s about to break out in a major way. The 2025 season was his introduction—530 plate appearances, three-WAR production, and a 133 wRC+ that ranked him 33% better than league average. But the Statcast profile suggests there’s another gear waiting to be unlocked. If he can push that batting average from .255 to .270 while maintaining the power, you’re looking at an All-Star caliber first baseman in his prime.

The Projection: 30 Homers, .270 Average, All-Star Conversation

Mark it down: if Ben Rice stays healthy and continues making elite contact at this rate, he’s hitting 30 home runs with a .270 average and forcing his way into the All-Star conversation by July. The underlying metrics are too good, the plate discipline is too advanced, and the Yankees’ lineup protection (hitting behind Judge) is too perfect to bet against him. Monday’s spring debut was just a reminder that the Yankees’ everyday first baseman isn’t a question mark anymore.

He’s the answer.