The New York Yankees have a lengthy tradition that’s filled with some of the greatest players to have ever played the game. Giants of the game who have done historic things to leave their mark as legends. Names like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle. Of course there are many more, but I pulled those three names for a reason.
Aaron Judge is on their level in terms of his greatness in 2024 and that’s saying a lot. Aaron Judge is currently batting .329 with an OBP of .463. Judge has 42 HRs and 107 RBIs with still a month and a half left in the season. He has an incredible OPS of 1.162 but it’s his OPS+ number that really jumps off the page. Judge’s OPS+ is an astounding 221.
If the season were to end today, he’d be the first man with an OPS+ over 220 since Barry Bonds. Before Bonds, you’d have to go all the way back to Mickey Mantle’s MVP season in 1957 to find someone who had an OPS+ of 221. OPS+ essentially measures how good a player is at the plate compared to the rest of the league.
The average MLB hitter has an OPS+ of 100 so given the fact that Aaron Judge has an OPS+ of 221, it reads that Judge is more the twice as good as the average major league hitter. The Yankees’ star actually has a better OPS+ right now than he did during his record breaking 2022 MVP campaign where he hit 62 home runs. Judge ended that season with an OPS+ of 210.
Yankees’ Star is the MVP
It’s crazy to think about it, but Aaron Judge has been better at the plate this year than he was in 2022 and that’s also after a horrific April. Judge has a higher average, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ than he did in 2022 when he was the runaway MVP over two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. So you’d think the MVP race is over, right?
Well, don’t tell that to some media pundits or the people in Kansas City. For context, I live in Kansas City which is the heart of Bobby Witt Jr country. Bobby Witt Jr is having an incredible season that’s seen him hit .347 with an OPS of 1.003. Witt Jr has 23 homers, 25 stolen bases, 88 RBIs, and he’s played at a gold glove level at shortstop.
He’s arguably the games best overall player and he’s carried The Royals to playoff contention just a year after they lost 100 games. Because of Witt’s overall impact on the game and the Royals playoff situation, many are saying he should be the MVP over the Yankees’ center fielder. Unlike some Yankees fans, I definitely see the argument for BWJ, but at the end of the day, the argument still falls short.
I love baseball history and I love players who are doing something we’ve never seen. As incredible as Bobby Witt Jr has been this year, he’s not doing something that we can’t just look back in recent history to find a comparable comp. Essentially, BWJ’s 2024 is extremely similar to Mike Trout’s 2012 season where Trout finished second in the MVP voting to Miguel Cabrera who won the Triple Crown.
What Cabrera did was historic just like what Judge is doing. What Aaron Judge is doing for the Yankees hasn’t been seen in this era of baseball outside of Barry Bonds. Of course, Bonds always has been tied to steroids while Judge is doing all of this completely clean. Aaron Judge is having a season that the American League hasn’t seen in 67 years. Think about that, nobody has been this good at the plate since Mickey Mantle.
A big argument for Royals’ fans as well as pundits who believe that Bobby Witt Jr should be the MVP is his defense. They’ll scream from the rooftops about defensive metrics and defensive WAR. I’d just like to remind everyone that Aaron Judge is not playing his natural position this year. For the team, he’s moved to centerfield because Juan Soto is occupying right field.
Bobby Witt Jr should absolutely get credit for his defense, but I think Judge should also get a little break for the simple fact that he’s playing out of his natural position and he’s playing a much more difficult position than he’s used to. Nevertheless, give defense to BWJ.
WAR and NY Bias
The WAR argument is another one that continuously gets brought up. Currently, both Judge and Witt Jr have an fWar of 8.3. In terms of traditional WAR, Judge is at 8.1 while Witt Jr is 7.8. These two are going to trade the WAR lead for the rest of the season and if they don’t end up tied, it’s going to be within .1 or .2.
Royals fans keep bringing up Yankees bias in the media when it comes to why Judge is the overwhelming betting favorite over Bobby Witt Jr. Sure, the Yankees get more national media coverage but the counter there is the fact that there is way more pressure on the shoulders of Aaron Judge than there is Bobby Witt Jr.
At the end of the day, if the Royals don’t make the playoffs or if Witt Jr struggles down the stretch, nobody is going to bat an eye because even getting to this point is incredible. Honestly, they’re playing with a little house money which allows them the freedom to play loose. There is no team on the planet that lives under more of a microscope than the Yankees and there’s not a single player who shoulders more pressure than the captain, Aaron Judge.
And at the end of the day, I just go back to my initial argument up above in the fact that what Judge is doing is something we haven’t seen since the 50s. I get the fact that Bobby Witt Jr plays on an inferior team. I get the fact that he plays great defense at a premier position. I get the fact that he steals bases and he’s hitting nearly 350.
Believe me, I understand. Any other year, he’d probably be the favorite. However, this isn’t any other year. This is a year where Aaron Judge is doing something truly historic while the Yankees have the best record in baseball. While some might cry foul or some might say it’s not fair, if both players keep up their pace for the rest of the year, Judge won’t just win the MVP, it’s not going to be that close in terms of the final vote.