The Yankees have every reason to consider a pivot away from Clay Holmes as their closer, especially with Holmes entering a contract year and seeking a significant payday after the 2024 season. The Bombers are expected to let him walk in free agency and may look to more cost-effective alternatives like Luke Weaver or Ian Hamilton to handle high-leverage situations moving forward.
Holmes’ Inconsistent Performance in 2024
Holmes‘ season has been a mix of highs and lows. While he has managed a career-high 29 saves in just 59 innings, he has also blown a league-high 13 saves. Despite a 3.36 ERA and a solid strikeout rate of 9.92 batters per nine innings, Holmes’ effectiveness has been compromised by a 69% left-on-base rate and a troubling 63.5% ground-ball rate.
His underlying metrics still show promise, but his performance has declined since 2021, the year the Yankees acquired him from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Most notably, Holmes is allowing more home runs per nine innings than in previous seasons.
Dramatic Decline in Key Metrics
Compared to his 2023 season, Holmes’ metrics have seen a steep drop-off. Despite increasing his sinker velocity from 96 mph to 96.6 mph, the pitch has become far less effective. It’s now generating a .338 batting average and a .454 slugging rate, a stark contrast to last season when it limited opponents to a .260 average and a .343 slugging percentage.
In response, the Yankees have adjusted Holmes’ pitch mix significantly. He has reduced his sinker usage from 69.5% in 2023 to 55% this season, opting to rely more on his slider and sweeper. While those breaking pitches remain effective, the inconsistency of his sinker has allowed hitters to sit back and wait for breaking pitches, increasing their walk opportunities and further eroding Holmes’ control.
Recent Struggles Highlight Concerns
Since August 1, Holmes has posted a 5.02 ERA, allowing eight earned runs over 14.1 innings. His control has worsened, with a walk rate of 5.02 batters per nine. Since September 1, his struggles have intensified, as he now sports a 10.80 ERA with 7.20 walks per nine innings. The sinker’s loss of effectiveness has made it harder for Holmes to dominate hitters as he did in the past.
Despite these alarming trends, Yankees manager Aaron Boone remains confident in Holmes’ ability to contribute during the playoffs.
Boone’s Confidence in Holmes for the Playoffs
“The reality is, he’s still really good. His stuff is really good, and he’s going to get big outs for us,” Boone said on Thursday, reaffirming his trust in the veteran closer.
While Boone’s faith in Holmes is clear, the Yankees will need to weigh whether they can continue to rely on him in high-leverage situations during the postseason. With more consistent options like Luke Weaver and Ian Hamilton in the bullpen, the team may be forced to reassess Holmes’ role if his control issues persist.
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The Path Forward for the Yankees
Holmes’ erratic performance puts the Yankees in a difficult position as they approach the playoffs. If he can regain control of his sinker and improve his consistency, he could still be a vital part of the bullpen. However, with the Yankees eyeing a deep postseason run, Boone may need to explore other closer options to ensure the team can secure victories in tight games.