The Yankees and Guardians are once again meeting up in the postseason, as these two squads continue a postseason rivalry that’s spanned three different decades. Whether it was the pennant-winning Cleveland team in 1997 vanquishing the reigning World Series Champions or the upstart Yankees coming back from a 2-0 deficit to get past Cleveland in the 2017 ALDS, they’ve exchanged plenty of blows in October. This time, the stakes are about as high as they can get. With a trip to the World Series on the line, it’s Cleveland versus New York in a best-of-seven showdown.
No other team has lost six-straight ALCS or NLCS matchups, so will the Yankees go to the World Series for the first time since 2009, or will they continue their futility in a series that has haunted the Bronx Bombers for over a decade? It’s a matchup the Yankees will be favored in, but the Guardians pack more of a punch than we’ve seen in the last few seasons.
How the Yankees Should Attack the Guardians’ Offense
Unlike previous editions of the Cleveland Guardians, this lineup has a bit of thump to pair with its pesky contact profile. They weren’t on the Yankees, Dodgers, or Mets’ levels this year, but they still finished 12th in home runs (185) and Isolated Power (.157) on the season. Cleveland also finished with the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball (20.2%), making this a decently well-rounded offense.
Despite those improvements from the power department, they finished 17th in wRC+ (100) and 14th in Runs Scored (708), making them a mostly mediocre unit. They make poor swing decisions but pull the ball in the air a ton, and the Yankees will have to prey on the Guardians’ tendencies to expand the zone to get a ball out in front and pull it out of the yard.
The Guardians struggle with anything on the outer-half of the plate regardless of whether we’re talking about their left-handed or right-handed hitters, and the Yankees need to prey on that aggression in this series. Their biggest threat at the plate is Jose Ramirez, and Detroit laid out a blueprint to how you can neutralize him from the left-handed side:
It was a pitiful showing for the switch-hitting superstar, and the reason for it was the Tigers kept forcing him to cover pitches down and away, resulting in weak contact and easy outs. Ramirez is very susceptible to chasing and the Yankees need to try to make him swing himself out of counts and cut off right field.
His numbers from the right-handed side are incredible, presenting a difficult matchup for left-handed pitchers, but Ramirez has some weaknesses the Yankees could try and exploit. He has a high Chase Rate (37.1%) on pitches outside and struggles with hard four-seamers thrown up and in.
Just as its important to limit Jose Ramirez, it’s also important to make sure his supporting cast doesn’t terrorize you and give him chances to put a crooked number on the board.
READ MORE: Yankees add $18 million veteran to expand their postseason bullpen
For right-handed pitchers, there isn’t too much to worry about. They posted a 95 wRC+ and .150 ISO against RHPs, as long as Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil aren’t abnormally off, they should hold their own. Sliders are the Guardians’ biggest weakness, which makes sense given how they look to pull and how making earlier swing decisions can leave them vulnerable to pitches with good horizontal movement away from them.
The pitches they have a negative Run Value against from the right-handed side are sliders, changeups, cutters, and splitters, which bode well for the Yankees’ rotation. While Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt both have a reliable cutter they can use, Luis Gil has a vicious changeup, and all three have sliders they can trust to make Cleveland hitters expand the zone and miss bats.
It’s easier said than done, but these are the keys to the Yankees’ success from a pitching standpoint:
- Lots of Sliders to Right-Handed Hitters
- Attack the Outside Part of the Plate
- Make the Guardians Expand the Zone
This is an offense that deserves respect, but everyone knows that Cleveland’s biggest strength is their dominant bullpen, which could go down as the best in modern history.
Can the Yankees Take Down the Guardians’ Pitching Staff?
Emmanuel Clase is the best reliever in baseball, and you could reasonably argue that Cade Smith has become the second-best reliever in the game. That doesn’t even mention the likes of Hunter Gaddis (1.57 ERA), Tim Herrin (1.92 ERA), and Eli Morgan (1.93 ERA). Young arms like Andrew Walters, Joey Cantillo, and Erik Sabrowski have shown flashes of brilliance too, so it’s important that the Yankees cash in against the Guardians’ starters.
Games 1 & 5: Alex Cobb (2-1) | 2.76 ERA | 3.29 FIP | 4.87 xERA | 16.1% K% | 61.2% GB%
There are only three starts to go off of here, which makes it hard for me to deduce if anything has changed between his 2023 and 2024 profile. Alex Cobb has a sinker-splitter mix with the occasional curveball, which definitely makes him stand out from most pitchers. His pitches have a lot of vertical drop, and that results in his hilariously high groundball rates, so the Yankees should be worried about the double play ball here.
He invites a lot of contact and a lot of it is loud; the Yankees should be ready to swing and do damage on anything Cobb leaves up in the zone. The Yankees will likely see him just once or twice through the lineup before they get to their bullpen, as he’s easier to tag when he’s left in a game beyond the fifth inning. Since 2022, Alex Cobb has completed six or more innings in under 40% of starts, and he completed just three innings in his lone ALDS start.
Only the Colorado Rockies had a higher wOBA than the New York Yankees against right-handed sinkers this season (.393), let’s hope that translates in October.
Games 2 & 6: Tanner Bibee (12-8) | 3.47 ERA | 3.56 FIP | 3.80 xERA | 26.3% K% | 34.6% GB%
The Cleveland Guardians’ ace, Tanner Bibee took a step back from a damage prevention standpoint but was able to induce more whiffs and make 31 starts on the season. He has blossomed into an excellent pitcher, and the Yankees will have their work cut out for them against the 25-year-old righty. Bibee’s four-seamer isn’t a strong pitch, with batters slugging.476 against it with a .344 wOBA this season, but its his secondaries that make him devastating.
He features a firm slider with good horizontal sweep, a strong curveball, and a changeup that can miss plenty of bats as well. If the Yankees want to beat him, they’ll need to load their lineup with left-handed batters, who posted a .460 SLG% and .336 wOBA against him. He’s only faced the Yankees once in his big-league career, allowing two runs across 5.1 innings of work on May 2nd last season.
He throws 51.2% of his pitches in-zone and has a 65.8% First-Pitch Strike%, which are firmly above-average, so the Yankees need to make sure they’re ready to do damage early in counts.
Games 3 & 7: Matthew Boyd (2-2) | 2.72 ERA | 3.29 FIP | 3.10 xERA | 27.7% K% | 31.4% GB%
Matthew Boyd is the lone lefty on the Cleveland Guardians’ staff, and the only pitcher thus far whom the Yankees have faced this season. The left-hander allowed three runs across 5.1 innings with four walks, two strikeouts, and two home runs. The southpaw went on a stretch of dominant starts against the Rangers, Pirates, and Dodgers right after before running into some trouble at the end of the season, but he’s proven to be a nice piece in their rotation.
Cleveland won’t push Boyd deep into starts but he does serve as a bad matchup for the Yankees; his four-seamer isn’t great but he throws from a low slot and it sets up his changeup and slider which are excellent pitches. The Yankees should approach this game the same way they did against Michael Wacha in the ALDS; patiently. He doesn’t throw a lot of pitches in the zone relative to the rest of the league and while he was excellent in his two playoff starts, he threw just 6.2 combined innings.
Make him work, force the Guardians to get their bullpen in sooner, and hope that Juan Soto and Aaron Judge can give him a warm welcome to the ALCS in the first inning.
Bullpen and Game 4 Options
As for who could get the ball in Game 4, the Cleveland Guardians could use starters like Joey Cantillo or Gavin Williams in traditional starter roles or utilize them as openers to have a bullpen game. Williams was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball entering the 2024 season but has struggled with command and consistency on the mound in his rookie season.
The Yankees tagged him for three runs in 4.1 innings with four walks and five strikeouts, posting a 5.55 ERA from August onward. Cantillo posted a 4.89 ERA in nine appearances and also faced off against the Yankees this season, as the Bronx Bombers where he was smoked for seven runs in four innings pitched. Both could be better in bullpen roles, and the Guardians have arguably the best bullpen in modern MLB history.
With a 2.57 ERA and 26% strikeout rate this season, they only improve once you shrink their roster to their current ALCS group. FanGraphs’ Active Roster filter allows you to remove any players not currently on the ALCS squad. Their group has a 1.44 ERA as a unit; just let that sit for a second before we start breaking down their big guns.
Erik Sabrowski
The new kid on the block, Erik Sabrowski throws a 92-93 MPH four-seamer with 20 inches of Induced Vertical Break that he can use at the top of the zone for plenty of whiffs. His slider plays more like a cutter and his curveball is a big looping whiff machine, and this southpaw can be a pain to try and barrel up. He didn’t allow a single run in the regular season, striking out over 40% of batters faced and allowing zero barrels. Sabrowksi may not have overwhelming velocity, but he generates plenty of extension and the Yankees do not hit left-handers particularly well.
Eli Morgan
After posting a 4.01 ERA last season, Eli Morgan improved his fastball location and has completely eliminated the issues he previously had with allowing damage contact. His four-seamer, slider, and changeup all held batters to an SLG% below .400 this season, and Morgan has become one of the best right-handed relievers in the game. There aren’t a lot of punch outs in his game anymore, but the ability to suppress damage contact has made him a reliable weapon in high-leverage situations. Eli Morgan allowed 121 balls in play this season; just three were barrels.
Tim Herrin
Last season was a disaster for Tim Herrin and the Cleveland Guardians, but he put things together in his sophomore season as a big leaguer and dominated. The team’s top lefty throughout the season, he mostly throws curveballs and sliders with tons of vertical movement, as he struck out 26.5% of batters faced this season. Herrin keeps the ball on the ground a ton thanks to his sinker, but if the Yankees are going to beat him they’ll need to remain disciplined. Don’t even think of relying on a lefty to look remotely competitive against Herrin in this series.
Cade Smith
If it wasn’t for his teammate, I’d argue for Cade Smith being the best reliever in the American League right now, as he’s put himself in an elite and exclusive class of high-leverage weapons this year. The right-hander possesses three devastating pitches with a four-seamer, splitter, and slider, as Smith racked up 103 strikeouts in 75.1 innings of work, posting a 1.91 ERA in the process. He allowed just one home run this season and has only allowed six runs since the All-Star Break if you include the postseason. A power pitcher with excellent secondaries, the game is over if Cleveland has a lead and he walks out of the bullpen.
Emmanuel Clase
Emmanuel Clase is the best closer in the game and I’m not particularly sure it’s close right now. He just finished having a historic campaign where he posted a 0.61 ERA in 74.1 innings, recording 47 saves in the process. Sure, he doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but his stuff is so dominant that batters are almost worse off putting a ball in play with a runner on when Clase is on the bump. All batters can do against the 100 MPH cutter is hit weak pop-ups or grounders, but the Yankees have gotten to the star closer before.
He has a 3.09 ERA against the Yankees with three blown saves in 11 appearances since 2021, including a blown save this season. I wouldn’t bet on Clase blowing many chances with a lead, but hey at least there’s hope.
So, can the Yankees win this series and punch their ticket to the World Series for the first time since 2009?
It’s no secret that the Yankees are the favorites to win this series, but the Guardians are a formidable opponent. If you thought the Guardians were difficult, wait until Steven Kwan starts a game with an eight-pitch at-bat that results in a single. Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, David Fry, Big Christmas (Jhonkensy Noel), and Lane Thomas are all bigger threats than what the Royals employed in the ALDS.
The rotation is worse but the bullpen is significantly better, overall there’s no denying that the Guardians will pose a much greater challenge than the Royals did in the ALDS. That being said, the Yankees can make this series less stressful if their two big stars show up. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have been magnificent all regular season, but they failed to hit a home run in the first round as both struggled with RISP throughout the series.
Now, they both stare down a chance to make the World Series; this is what we envisioned these two playing for when the season started in late March. The Aaron Judge-led Yankees have made three trips to the ALCS before this and have lost all three. Will this fourth trip be another failure or will they finally punch their ticket to the Fall Classic?