The Yankees have spent years searching for a long-term answer at first base, often relying on stopgap veterans or expensive free agents to plug the hole. That search appears to be over, and the solution was hiding in plain sight behind a catcher’s mask all along. Ben Rice is no longer just a fun utility story or a depth piece; he is the projected starter at first base for 2026, and the data suggests he is sitting on a powder keg of potential that is about to explode.
Rice is coming off a tremendous offensive season in 2025 where he firmly established himself as a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat.
Over 138 games, the 26-year-old slashed .255/.337/.499, launching 26 home runs and driving in 65 RBIs while scoring 74 times. Those counting stats are impressive for a player who was often shuffled around the diamond to accommodate other rosters spots, but they only scratch the surface of how dominant he truly was.
The Underlying Metrics Scream Superstar
To understand why the Yankees are handing Rice the keys to first base, you have to look at his Baseball Savant page, which is covered in elite red ink. Rice ranked in the 97th percentile for expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .395 and the 97th percentile for expected slugging percentage (xSLG) at .550. These numbers indicate that his production wasn’t a fluke; in fact, he was arguably one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball based on the quality of contact he generated.
The scariest part for opposing pitchers is that Rice might have actually been unlucky in 2025. While he batted .255, his expected batting average (xBA) was a robust .290, ranking in the 95th percentile. He absolutely punishes the baseball, boasting a 97th percentile Hard-Hit rate of 56.1% and a 95th percentile average exit velocity of 93.3 mph.
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Projections Point to Another Leap Forward
The projection models are fully buying into the breakout, forecasting even more power for the young lefty in his first season as the full-time starter. The FGDC projection system predicts Rice will hit 29 home runs and drive in 82 runs in 2026, posting a 125 wRC+ that would make him 25% better than the league average hitter. If he simply normalizes to his expected stats, those numbers could look conservative by the All-Star break.
Versatility Remains a Secret Weapon
While first base is now his primary domain, Rice’s history behind the plate remains a luxury for manager Aaron Boone. Having a first baseman who can strap on the gear in an emergency or give the primary catcher a rest day allows the Yankees to be creative with their bench construction. However, the days of viewing him as a “utility catcher” are over; his bat is simply too valuable to be weighed down by the physical toll of catching 100 games.
Ben Rice has transformed from a 12th-round draft pick into a cornerstone of the Yankees’ future. The metrics show a hitter with elite plate discipline and world-class power who is just entering his prime. If 2025 was the breakout, 2026 is shaping up to be the year Rice forces the rest of the league to acknowledge him as a superstar.
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