Why the New York Yankees Fans Should Temper Expectations Early For Gerrit Cole

The New York Yankees have landed their great white whale. The New York Yankees signed one of the best pitchers in baseball, Gerrit Cole! I’m celebrating just as much as the next Yankees fan, but… I’m also tempering my expectations early in Cole’s first season.

Why Temper Expectations?

According to fangraphs.com, Cole’s fly ball/home run rate was above the league average in 2019. League average was roughly 15%, Cole was at 16%. “Oh, yea, 1%,” some of you are saying derisively. “I’m REAL worried.”

You should be.

Cole gave up 29 home runs last year. Tanaka, who’s been hurt by the long ball, gave up 28. Paxton gave up 23. German and Happ each gave up 30 or more.

Cole is going to have to adjust. PNC Park, where he started as a Pirate, is 325 to left, and 320 to right. It was 326 to right pitching in Houston and 315 to left. We ALL KNOW it’s 314 down either line to the wall in Yankee Stadium. 

We also need to anticipate that the Yankees analytics department won’t let Cole pitch into the 7th inning or later on a regular basis. At least, not until June or July at the earliest. 

He’ll Figure it Out Though

He’s good and crafty enough to adjust and figure out how to pitch in Yankee Stadium. But, it’s going to take a while to get there. Knowing Yankees fans, they’re going to call him a bum if he goes 2-2 in April, say that he was overpaid, all of that and more. Yankees fans seem to forget that Paxton was 5-6 by July 26th, averaging 5 innings or fewer the entire season. All anyone seems to remember is he was good from August through his second to the last start (remember how he tweaked a glute muscle his last start? Because I do, and I LAUGHED about how he hurt his butt!).

But it happens every year when someone is in a slump as a player. It doesn’t matter who it is, the fans always forget just how long the season is, and that we don’t need to kill it right out the gate.