The Yankees have a weird situation with their bullpen, as while the nucleus of their high-leverage relievers is set in stone, they’ll still have some spots on the roster to fill out. It is a more difficult task than the average fan would think given that it requires a team to decide on which arm they have the most confidence in to perform over a small sample size. Even the game’s very best analysts couldn’t reliably project a player’s performance in a window as tiny as the postseason, and it’s not as if we’re talking about a particularly established group of arms either.
With 13 roster spots for pitchers, the Yankees essentially have 10 of those spots covered, with potentially 11 if Jake Cousins can rehab from his right pectoral strain before Saturday. This leaves 2-3 spots open for the playoff roster, and there aren’t many pitchers who can be reasonably asked to pitch in the postseason. It’s hard to figure out which depth arms are best prepared to go on a great October run, as each has compelling cases to be included or excluded on the Yankees’ ALDS roster.
Could This Yankees’ Trade Bust Redeem Himself in the Postseason?
2024 MLB Stats: 4.50 ERA | 3.39 xERA | 2.63 SIERA | 33.6% K% | 1.1 fWAR
THE BAD:
Mark Leiter Jr. was a massive dud of an addition at the trade deadline, with the Yankees not getting remotely the production they had hoped for. The right-hander allowed six home runs in just 21.2 innings pitched with New York after allowing just two for the Cubs across 36.1 innings pitched, with an especially putrid stretch from mid-August to mid-September.
Between August 11th and September 13th, Leiter posted a 9.00 ERA and 8.71 FIP, as batters ran a 17.6% Barrel Rate against him and completely blitzed whatever he was serving up. With a 4.98 ERA and 5.24 FIP in the Bronx, it’s hard to see how the Yankees could allow him to make the postseason roster.
The pitch that bedeviled him the most with the Yankees was his sinker, a pitch that went from a reliable groundball offering to batting practice once he put on the pinstripes. Batters hit four of their six HRs against Leiter on the sinker and put up an unbelievable .858 wOBA against that pitch. It’s as much nauseating as it is hard to believe.
THE GOOD:
Second-half performance is not as predictive as first-half performance, which is why its important to look at his underlying metrics. A 3.39 xERA is impressive, especially considering that it does take into account how hard batters hit a pitcher. He was 12th among qualified relievers in strikeout rate (33.6%) and he actually saw an increase in his Swinging Strike% with the Yankees.
Mark Leiter Jr. has also seemed to identify that his sinker is just not a usable pitch for him right now, as he’s subtly decreased his usage of the pitch and has seen some improvements in his effectiveness.
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Over his last 8 outings, Leiter has a 3.48 ERA and 39.5% strikeout rate, throwing his sinker just 14.1% of the time during that stretch. Sure, it’s mostly come in mop-up duty, but that’s the role he’s going to play if he makes this roster for the ALDS. We aren’t talking about whether he should get the ball in a one-run game, but rather if he’s a capable depth arm to throw situationally.
I also think there’s some value in utilizing him against left-handed batters, who have a 30.3% K% and 0.84 HR/9 against him this season. It makes sense that he performs well against them given how good the curveball and splitter are, but the Yankees could get some actual value out of him in the postseason and that seemed unfathomable just a couple of weeks ago.
Sure, he could just end up getting crushed in the postseason, or he could be a nice low-leverage arm who eats some innings and punches some tickets. I’m willing to roll that dice right now.
Is the Yankees’ Best Bet an Inexperienced Rookie?
2024 MLB Stats: 4.91 ERA | 3.62 xERA | 2.48 SIERA | 33.3% K% | 0.1 fWAR
THE BAD:
Clayton Beeter has thrown a grand total of 3.2 innings at the Major League level, there’s just no telling what you’re going to get with him right now. His command issues as a prospect were already alarming, and in a playoff environment, he could find himself outmatched and unable to make competitive pitches. Furthermore, he dealt with a shoulder issue for most of the summer, further adding to the list of red flags.
The effect that experience can have in a postseason game is hard to quantify, but players and coaches swear by the value of having someone who has been there before. How does one handle throwing a pitch in the postseason and controlling their emotions when there’s a runner on? It’s impossible to know. I’m very data-driven, but as someone who has played baseball before, it would be foolish of me to pretend that players are incapable of being overwhelmed with pressure in a situation they’ve never been in previously.
THE GOOD:
For all of the worries that I have about how a very inexperienced rookie would perform in a playoff atmosphere, I also believe that Clayton Beeter has the right kind of arsenal for October. The right-hander has a great two-pitch mix with his four-seamer and slider, which can punch tickets and get some ugly chases when he’s on. Beeter has done nothing but punch tickets since becoming a pro, and the Yankees could benefit from having the last man on their depth chart be a high-upside pitcher.
The Yankees aren’t trotting Clayton Beeter out in the ninth inning with a one-run lead to protect, they would be using him in a similar fashion to Mark Leiter Jr. Furthermore, his multi-inning versatility could be valuable in the role of a pitcher who just comes in and saves the bullpen. His four-seamer has 18.8 inches of Induced Vertical Break and sits at 95 MPH which allows it to work well at the top of the zone, although his high release height makes it a little less effective as a high-whiff offering.
What it does do is set up his slider, which is one of the best secondary offerings for any prospect in the Yankees’ organization. It had a 135 Stuff+ in its limited sample size at the Major League level, but its been a whiff machine at any level he’s pitched at. It has -2.9″ of IVB which makes it devastating for hitters who find themselves swinging over it, and since it doesn’t move much laterally, it can play to lefties and righties as well.
There’s no way to know how his stuff would play in the postseason, but we know that he’s missed bats at every level and his stuff is more than good enough.
This Veteran Left-Hander Has An Odd Case For A Roster Spot
2024 MLB Stats: 6.33 ERA | 5.41 xERA | 4.60 SIERA | 14.4% K% | -0.1 fWAR
THE BAD:
Well, Tim Mayza has a 6.33 ERA and -0.1 fWAR. That’s really bad. It’s not hard to argue against rostering a guy who doesn’t have strikeout stuff and hasn’t been impressive this year. Projected to earn roughly $4 million in arbitration for 2025, the Yankees are almost certainly going to cut him, regardless of whether they decide to bring him back on a cheaper deal or not.
So he’s got a good chance to find himself out of a job in December, has a negative fWAR, and doesn’t miss bats; this seems like an easy option to leave off of the roster. The Yankees have their high-leverage left-handed weapon in Tim Hill, who has come out of nowhere to put up incredible run-prevention numbers, so why would they need to make room for Tim Mayza?
THE GOOD:
So for all of Tim Mayza’s poor metrics on the season, what has impressed me is his most recent stretch which has come with an uptick in velocity and overall pitch quality. The pedigree here is excellent and his struggles in Toronto (and at the start of his tenure with the Yankees) could be directly tied to a dramatic drop-off in pitch quality, so if he’s corrected that issue, then I believe he’s a legitimate weapon for the bullpen.
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His sinker Stuff+ has increased to 109 over his last 12 appearances, boasting a 3.07 ERA and 54.3% GB% during that stretch. Batters have. a.274 wOBA against that pitch since that point in time, and the improvement in pitch quality has be all the way back on Mayza being a decent reliever. His sinker had an 86 Stuff+ before that point and he struggled to keep the ball on the ground, but with his velocity back he looks the way he did with the Blue Jays.
If the Yankees thought he sucked, they would have designated him for assignment multiple times, but have instead chosen to cut or option other relievers on the roster. Mayza is getting right at the perfect time, and the bullpen could greatly benefit from having a groundball machine with a firm sinker from the left-handed side. It seems crazy, but Mayza is a strong filler arm for a Yankees’ roster that has established high-leverage options ahead of him on the depth chart.