Entering the 2024 season, Clay Holmes was the undisputed closer for the New York Yankees, a title that hasn’t been held down consistently since Aroldis Chapman’s final season in the Bronx back in 2022. It looked like Jonathan Loaisiga would assume that role but his injuries made it impossible to get him going, so breakout star Clay Holmes would get the ball in the ninth. It worked out great for most of 2022, and even in 2023, he was able to convert some saves and get some big outs for a team that disappointed greatly.
This year was Holmes’ worst with the Yankees, and while they’ve tried to get him back online multiple times throughout the summer, he hasn’t been able to consistently find it. With each high comes a soul-crushing low, and with each step forward there are at least two steps back. In what may very well be his last postseason with the Yankees, can Clay Holmes put it together and be a key part of this bullpen?
The Yankees Have To Answer Tough Questions About Clay Holmes
When you look at Clay Holmes’ season on the surface, it’s easy to see how the Yankees continued to put him in high-leverage situations. The right-hander has a 17% K-BB% with a 65% GB%, that’s going to play in a bullpen any day of the week, but the problem has been the regression over the season. Holmes has seemingly only gotten worse from a results standpoint as the year has gone on, a concerning trend that makes you wonder if the Yankees can even turn to him in the sixth or seventh innings of a close game.
Luke Weaver has stolen the closer job for the postseason, and rightfully so after eviscerating batters in September and locking down some big wins for the Yankees. Tommy Kahnle, Ian Hamilton, Tim Hill, and Jake Cousins have all climbed the trust tree and are more reliable options than Holmes is right now, but does that mean they should completely ice him out of a big game?
In the postseason, everyone gets a clean slate statistically. Harrison Bader can slug better than Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, Raul Ibanez can become the most clutch hitter in the world, and Damaso Marte can mow down All-Star bats without breaking a sweat. That’s the beauty of October, but teams still need to take educated guesses on which players will perform the best in that environment.
For Clay Holmes, there seems to be a positive trend that could lead to him contributing positively in the postseason, and it has to do with his sinker randomly improving to 2021-2023 levels of excellence.
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Subtle changes in his release points have resulted in a bit more run, and when you mix all of these small changes together, you have a pitch that has upticked by multiple standard deviations in Stuff+. In 2023 his sinker had a 119 Stuff+, serving as his go-to weapon to get groundballs and avoid damage contact. Over this stretch, Holmes has a 2.25 ERA and 3.36 SIERA, encouraging signs that he’s getting somewhat on-track after a rough summer.
The Yankees shouldn’t utilize Clay Holmes as their ninth inning guy nor should he even be their first guy out in a jam, but he could definitely provide some clean innings and compliment the bullpen nicely. He has the secondary stuff to miss bats when needed as well and can mix-in a sweeper or slider based on the matchup, and at the end of the day, most leverage metrics aren’t sticky year-to-year.
Emmanuel Clase went from the league-leader in blown saves to arguably having the greatest season we’ve ever seen by a closer, one bad week can sink your entire year. Clay Holmes has run into some poor luck in save opportunities but has also put himself in some bad situations as well, both can be true and its impossible to ignore both truths. If leverage truly affected Holmes’ personality and demeanor, he wouldn’t have a spotless postseason resume, and I think time off and the return of his sinker could play to his benefit.
After this season, Clay Holmes will become an unrestricted free agent, and I expect teams to bid for his services because he has the stuff and makeup of an excellent reliever. Whether he stays with the Yankees or not remains to be seen, but his overall tenure in the Bronx has been unbelievable. Acquired for two prospects who never amounted to anything, Brian Cashman will hang his hat on this trade because it played a huge role in helping the 2021 team make the postseason and has given them a high-leverage bullpen arm for 3.5 years now.
This October can help Clay Holmes potentially end his tenure here on a high note; win a World Series and you’re a hero in New York forever. His nightmarish summer is in the rear-view mirror, and the pen is in Clay Holmes’ hand as he can write what could be the end of his chapter with the New York Yankees.