Masahiro Tanaka has been a fixture In the New York Yankees rotation since his debut in 2014. He was electric that rookie season, right up until the partial year in his pitching elbow was discovered. Rather than go through a full year of recovering and rehab from Tommy John surgery, Tanaka elected to simply rehab the tear. To this date, Tanaka still has that partial year in his elbow. And this is the final year of his contract. So it begs two very important questions:
First: What Does Tanaka Do?
As it’s been the case since he made his choice, Tanaka’s elbow could go at any minute. The fact that is still the case in the most important season of his career, should worry Tanaka. He went from being the Yankees bonafide ace, to the 3rd or 4th man in the rotation (depending on how you view Paxton’s August through October last year). Based on his postseason record, Tanaka will want ace caliber money, or something akin to what Stephen Strasberg got. With diminishing returns in the regular season each of the last 4 seasons, it’s hard for him to make that claim about his value. Especially if he finally has to get the surgery at some point in 2020.
Next, What do the Yankees Do?
It seems likely that when German’s suspension is over, he’ll slide into the rotation as the 5th starter. Deivi Garcia is poised to crack the starting rotation as a strike throwing machine. Jordan Montgomery, Johnathan Loaisiga and Luis Cesa are also all going to be viable spot start candidates moving forward. In order to build for the future, you sometimes have to dismantle the past, and Tanaka’s presence in the rotation may have to be dismantled moving into 2021.
Remember when the Yankees let David Robertson walk after 2018? Who’d have thought that he’d go down with Tommy John? The Phillies certainly didn’t, but the Yankees look a little smarter as a result. Plus, Tanaka is going to be 31 by seasons end. If the Yankees weren’t prepared to offer Didi Gregorius even a one year deal, being north of 30, with diminishing returns defensively (and offensively), why would they give Tanaka a likely 7 year deal? Especially if he goes down with Tommy John at any point this season?
It’s going to be interesting to see how things unfold with Tanaka. If the Yankees do give Tanaka a new contract, it may be with the caveat of Tanaka HAVING to get Tommy John by his signing. The only thing we can do right now is wait and see.