Alexander Wilson
The New York Yankees demolished the Baltimore Orioles 7-2 on Saturday night behind Ben Rice’s three-run homer, two hits and two runs from Aaron Judge, and another rock-solid start from Will Warren, who lowered his ERA to 2.39 over 37.2 innings this season. That ERA is not a fluke, and the underlying metrics are starting to confirm it in a big way.
Warren came into this season as a back-end rotation piece who was supposed to survive long enough for Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon to get healthy. That was the ask. He has delivered something considerably better than survival, and at this point the conversation around him needs to change.
What the Numbers Are Showing
His Statcast profile this season tells the story of a pitcher who has genuinely improved across the board. He ranks in the 84th percentile in strikeout rate and the 89th percentile in walk rate, two numbers that put him comfortably in the above-average tier for a starting pitcher in the American League. He’s not walking guys, he’s striking out more batters than he ever has, and his 49% ground ball rate means hitters who do make contact are putting the ball on the floor more often than not.
The fastball is the biggest development. His four-seamer is producing a .222 batting average against, and his sinker sits at .220. Those are legitimate numbers for a pitcher’s primary pitches. The velocity has been creeping up as the season progresses, which is giving both pitches more life and movement than he was getting in April. When a pitcher adds velocity mid-season rather than losing it, that’s a really good sign about where the arm is heading for the second half.
The sweeper still needs refinement. It hasn’t been as sharp as the fastball family, and hitters have shown they can find it when he leans on it too heavily. The good news is that Warren has the sense to trust his sinker and four-seamer when they’re working this well, and right now they’re working about as well as they ever have.
What He’s Actually Become
I said it earlier this season and it’s even more true now: the Yankees didn’t just get a warm body in the rotation when Cole and Rodon went on the IL. They got a legitimate starter who gives them a chance to win every time he takes the mound. A 2.39 ERA through 37 innings in the American League East is not a product of luck or easy matchups. Warren has faced Baltimore, Boston, Tampa Bay, and Houston among others. The competition has been real and he’s handled it.
When Cole and Rodon return, Warren slides back in the rotation order but doesn’t go away. He’s earned a spot in a healthy five-man rotation on the merit of what he’s done this year, and the idea that he reverts to a backend option when everyone is healthy understates what he’s shown.
The Yankees set out to survive until their real rotation arrived. Warren turned that plan into something better. Now the question is whether he can keep this up into June and July, and based on the velocity trend and the underlying metrics, there’s real reason to think he can.
More about:New York Yankees
