Alexander Wilson
Nobody expected the bottom third of the New York Yankees lineup to carry the offense through the first week of the season, but at some point the production needs to arrive. Ryan McMahon’s plate discipline issues are well documented. Jose Caballero is hitting .129 and on borrowed time at shortstop. Austin Wells, the one member of that group with the clearest path to becoming a genuine offensive contributor, is sitting at .167/.286/.167 through eight games and has not looked like himself at the plate.
The good news is that Wells looks like a player going through a mechanical adjustment rather than a player who has forgotten how to hit.
What the Numbers Actually Say
His strikeout rate is at 32.1%, meaningfully above the rates he posted in his best stretches last season and well above where it needs to be for him to produce. When Wells is locked in, he is a patient hitter who works counts, makes hard contact, and takes his walks. His career profile shows a hitter with genuine power potential and better plate discipline than the current strikeout number suggests. The elevated whiff rate right now is a symptom, not a diagnosis.
The other number that stands out is the complete absence of extra base hits. A .167 slugging percentage means Wells is not getting to his power at all, which lines up with what the eye test showed through the weekend series against Miami. He has been getting beat on pitches he should drive, suggesting the timing on his new swing adjustment is still catching up to major league velocity.
The adjustment itself makes sense. Wells raised his hand position slightly in the offseason to create a better bat path to the ball, shortening the distance his hands travel from start position to contact. When that kind of change is working, the result is earlier contact and better pull-side production. When the timing is off early in a season, hitters tend to be late through the zone, producing weak contact to the opposite field or swings and misses on fastballs they would normally punish. That is exactly what Wells looks like right now.
Why the Breakout Is Coming
Sunday was actually the most encouraging day Wells has had despite the empty box score. He made quality contact multiple times that simply did not find holes, which is the baseball version of a player running the right play at the wrong time. Hard contact that falls for outs is a temporary problem. Swing-and-miss on balls down the middle is a real problem. Sunday looked like the former.
Wells turned 26 in February and enters this season as a player the Yankees believe can take a meaningful offensive step forward. He was their first-round pick in 2020, and the organization has never wavered in their belief that the bat is the reason they selected him. His defensive development behind the plate has been the story of his early career, but the offensive profile was always the foundation of his projection.
The sample is small enough that a two-week stretch could completely change how this conversation looks. If the strikeout rate drops back toward the 24-25% range he maintained during his best stretches last season, the contact quality that was present on Sunday starts converting into actual production. The lineup needs that version of Wells more than it needs anything else right now from the bottom third of the order.
He looked close on Sunday. That has to count for something.
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