Ian Hamilton got off to a brutal start after a breakout season with the Yankees in 2023 which was punctuated with a shoulder injury in June. With a 4.55 ERA and 4.30 xFIP, things didn’t look great for Hamilton as it looked like this season would get away from him. The Yankees’ bullpen was in disarray before the deadline and the poor performances from their new bullpen additions haven’t helped them much either. Pressure was unintentionally placed on guys like Ian Hamilton to return and provide an immediate impact, and he’s done exactly that.
Since returning from the IL, he’s immediately come out of the gate carving up batters like butter and giving the Yankees confidence that the backend of their bullpen has enough firepower for October.
Yankees Have Immediately Gotten A Huge Boost From Ian Hamilton
Missing bats is important, especially in high leverage, and while the Yankees have seen their strikeout rates increase across the board, they could always use more firepower. Ian Hamilton’s four-seamer has improved by 1.1 MPH from his season average while still having solid vertical movement from a lower release height. This pitch establishes the top of the zone and gives him another swing-and-miss weapon to run into the hands of righties or away from the barrels of lefties.
His sinker had struggled mightily to generate any success, with batters hitting .462 against it with a .445 xwOBA, but it’s sitting nearly 2 MPH above his season average. With a bit more vertical drop and no change in horizontal movement, Hamilton has been able to throw it with more confidence, and if these velocity spikes hold he’ll be even more untouchable than he was last season. It’s a small sample size, but Hamilton has struck out 54.5% of the batters he’s faced since coming back from the IL, as batters have made hilariously bad swing decisions against him.
Batters swing more out of zone than in it against Ian Hamilton right now, and that kind of deception will play very well in a postseason setting. The signature slider is as nasty as ever, and the Yankees could view Hamilton as a vital late-inning weapon to bridge the game to their closer Luke Weaver. Aaron Boone has managed the bullpen significantly better without having a set closer, not waiting to pull Carlos Rodon in the sixth when the lane was there for Hamilton or pulling Jake Cousins once the Red Sox had Jarren Duran at the plate.
It’s also fair to point out that these decisions are made a little easier when he has multiple weapons to go to rather than just a couple of arms. Tim Hill is his guy for lefties, being able to pitch multiple innings, while Kahnle, Cousins, and Weaver have established themselves as the bedrock of the bullpen. Clay Holmes has been better in a middle-inning role where Boone picks his lanes, which could allow him to contribute in October. Having Ian Hamilton just gives them even more insurance in those late-game scenarios, as we’ve seen a bullpen that’s been in flames all year find its form.
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Ian Hamilton’s Stuff+ is up from 119 to 144, a metric that tends to stabilize very quickly, and he looks like a man on a mission to shutdown opposing lineups for Aaron Boone and this Yankees’ squad. There could be some weapons on the team who find themselves in the bullpen after spending the year in a rotation role, with arms like Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman being slotted out of the rotation for a turn each. I was very impressed with how the Hialeah Kid looked out of the bullpen, and his numbers match up for that kind of role in October.
He has a 2.88 ERA and 23% K-BB% when pitching first time through a lineup this season, and that kidn of production could be very enticing for a bullpen that has Tim Hill as their lone reliable lefty. Marcus Stroman doesn’t have those same splits first time through, but as a bulk pitcher who can eat innings out of the bullpen at any moment’s notice, he could be very valuable as well. It’s also interesting to see if the Yankees move Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil into the bullpen for a short series like the ALDS, where they’ll likely only use three starters.
Clayton Beeter and Cody Poteet currently sit in Triple-A, one of whom could come up in a bullpen role. Beeter has worked in relief this season since coming back from the IL and saw a massive uptick in his velocity and stuff overall. It could be an interesting week for the Yankees with the Triple-A season coming to this week, and with Mark Leiter Jr. struggling alongside Tim Mayza having an MiLB option and posting a 4.50 ERA since coming to the Yankees, they could make some roster moves soon to continue to bolster the bullpen.
The Yankees do not have a flawless bullpen, but they have one with enough swing-and-miss stuff to win ballgames in October. It’ll come down to health and whether they can heat up in the postseason where everyone feels evenly-matched.