The Yankees got exactly the news they needed on Friday afternoon when Gerrit Cole touched 96 mph during a bullpen session at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Cole is already hitting the mid-90s with his fastball, roughly 14 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and the radar gun confirms he’s tracking toward his vintage form.
The Velocity Defies the Typical Recovery Timeline
During Cole’s 2023 Cy Young season, he averaged 96.7 mph on his fastball. Touching 96 mph just 11 months post-surgery puts him within striking distance of peak velocity—unheard of for a 35-year-old coming off major elbow reconstruction. Manager Aaron Boone couldn’t hide his excitement. “He looked like a Cy Young pitcher,” catcher Austin Wells said after catching the session, via Gary Phillips of the NYDN.
Cole wants to pitch in spring training games, but the Yankees are taking the cautious approach. Boone made it clear they won’t rush him, prioritizing October readiness over regular-season starts. Cole himself acknowledged the standard 14-18 month Tommy John timeline, meaning he’s still targeting a late May or early June return.
The Yankees Don’t Need Him Until June Anyway
Cole’s elbow durability concerns forced the Yankees to pivot their championship rotation strategy, but the early returns suggest that pivot is working. Max Fried will anchor the top of the rotation through April and May. Carlos Rodon is targeting a late April return from his own Tommy John rehab. Cam Schlittler and Will Warren provide depth until Cole is ready.
The Yankees don’t need Cole to throw 200 innings like he did in his prime—they need him to give them quality starts down the stretch and dominate in short playoff series. I’m projecting roughly 100-120 innings across 15-18 starts, with the bulk of his workload concentrated in the second half.
The Medical Staff Won’t Let Him Push Too Hard
Cole’s surgically repaired elbow “feels really good,” he said Friday. “It feels different than it has been in quite some time.” That’s the baseline requirement for everything else to work. The Yankees aren’t banking on Cole being their ace in 2026, but if he can slot in as a high-end number three starter who peaks in October, that’s championship-caliber depth.
The research is clear: pitchers who rush back from Tommy John surgery face higher reinjury rates. Cole has been disciplined about following the medical staff’s plan. “When I’m told to push, I push. When I’m told not to, I don’t,” he said. That discipline is why he’s touching 96 mph in February instead of nursing setbacks.
This Changes the Rotation Math
If Cole debuts in early June, he’ll have nearly three months to build arm strength before the playoff push. That’s the ideal scenario—a fully ramped-up Cole throwing 5-6 innings per start with minimal restrictions by September. Combined with Fried as the ace and Rodon as a proven number two, the Yankees suddenly have three legitimate playoff starters.
Friday’s bullpen session was a statement. Cole isn’t just coming back—he’s coming back with the same power stuff that made him a Cy Young winner. The Yankees still need to be smart about his workload, but touching 96 mph this early suggests they might have their ace back sooner than anyone expected. And if Cole can give them even 80% of his 2023 form in the second half, this rotation becomes legitimately dangerous.
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