Alexander Wilson
The New York Yankees dropped back-to-back 4-3 losses to the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend and got swept in the process. Both losses in the final two games came down to the same issue: the high-leverage bullpen situation fell apart at the worst possible moment. David Bednar gave up a walk-off homer to Brice Turang on Sunday, the latest in a series of late-inning sequences that have cost the Yankees wins they should have been able to protect. The team heads to Baltimore for a three-game series against the Orioles, and the bullpen questions are traveling with them.
This isn’t entirely Bednar’s fault, and the raw ERA of 3.71 overstates how bad he’s actually been. But the broader setup situation is a legitimate concern that the front office is going to have to address before October.
Bednar Is Better Than the ERA
Before piling on the closer, the context matters. His Statcast numbers show a pitcher being victimized by circumstance more than skill. His 2.42 xERA is nearly a full run and a half better than his actual ERA, which is one of the bigger gaps between expected and actual production in the closer market this season. He ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate, 94th in barrel rate, and 96th in ground ball rate. He’s putting hitters away, limiting hard contact, and keeping the ball on the floor at an elite level. The underlying process is genuinely excellent.
What he doesn’t always have is the sequencing and execution in the moments that matter most, and the Turang homer on Sunday is a reminder that even pitchers with great metrics have bad pitches at the worst times. Closers are judged by blown saves and walk-offs more than xERA, and Bednar has given up a few too many of those already.
The Setup Problem Is the Bigger Issue
Here’s where the Yankees have a genuine roster concern. Fernando Cruz has been the primary setup option and has handled it capably, but relying on a single bridge arm to get the ball to Bednar in tight games is a thin margin. The moment Cruz is unavailable for back-to-back nights, the Yankees are forced into uncomfortable options, and Camilo Doval has not been one of those comfortable ones.
Doval’s 6.14 ERA over 14.2 innings has been one of the quieter roster failures of the first two months. The slider command issue that was identified early in the season has not been resolved, and hitters have been capitalizing on pitches catching too much of the zone. The Yankees traded for him to be a high-leverage piece behind the closer. Right now he’s a liability in situations that demand reliability.
Brent Headrick has been the bullpen’s best kept secret with a 1.47 ERA and elite underlying metrics, but he’s a left-handed specialist rather than a traditional setup man who can handle the eighth inning against any combination of hitters.
What the Trade Deadline Needs to Solve
The Yankees are going to be buyers in July, and the rotation conversation will probably dominate the early trade deadline discussion. It shouldn’t. The bullpen is where this team is most vulnerable right now, and addressing the setup situation with a legitimate high-leverage arm who can bridge to Bednar is the move that turns a good October roster into a championship-caliber one.
Carlos Rodon made his return on Sunday and struggled a bit, which was expected from a pitcher making his first appearance back from injury. He’ll get better. Cole is close. The rotation problem is solving itself organically. The bullpen problem requires an external solution, and the Yankees have both the prospect capital and the financial flexibility to make it happen in July.
Baltimore is next. The Yankees need to get their footing back before the bullpen situation compounds further.
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