Alexander Wilson
The New York Yankees spent most of 2025 watching Trent Grisham do something nobody expected him to do: hit 34 home runs, 23 of them leadoff blasts that set the tone before Aaron Judge ever stepped into the box. It was a revelation, a contract-year masterpiece that earned Grisham a $22 million qualifying offer he wisely accepted. But now that the 27-year-old Ben Rice is locked in as the everyday first baseman, the Yankees have an opportunity to squeeze even more juice out of the top of their order.
Rice should bat leadoff in 2026. The data doesn’t just suggest it. It screams it.
Over an 84-at-bat sample last season, Rice hit .226/.363/.548 with seven home runs and 17 RBIs while batting first. That .911 OPS is absurd production from a leadoff spot, and while sample size matters, the underlying metrics explain why it wasn’t a fluke. Rice ranked in the 92nd percentile in barrel rate, the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate, and tied for seventh in Major League Baseball with a 56.1% hard-hit percentage. When he connects, he obliterates baseballs. When he doesn’t swing, he walks. That’s the profile of a modern leadoff hitter.
The Grisham Conundrum
Grisham was spectacular in 2025, posting a .235/.348/.464 slash line with 34 home runs and a 129 wRC+. His elite plate discipline pushed him into the 99th percentile for chase rate, and his 23 leadoff home runs were tied for fifth in baseball.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth: this was a career outlier. His previous home run high was 17. The Yankees extended him a $22 million qualifying offer not because they believed he’d replicate that production, but because the qualifying offer tag would depress his market. Grisham accepted because he knew it too. The smarter play is moving Rice to leadoff and letting Grisham settle into the five or six hole, where his power can still do damage without the pressure of setting the table.
Rice’s Plate Discipline Advantage
The most compelling argument for Rice at leadoff isn’t just the power. It’s the combination of power and discipline. In 2025, Rice hit .255/.337/.499 with 26 home runs and an .836 OPS over 467 at-bats, posting a 133 wRC+.
Rice was above average in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. He walked 50 times while striking out 126 times, a perfectly acceptable ratio for a power hitter. According to Baseball Savant, his 93.3 mph average exit velocity tied for ninth in Major League Baseball. His 15.4% barrel rate was well above league average. When Rice squares up a fastball, it travels. That’s the threat pitchers have to account for in the first at-bat of the game.
The Strategic Advantage
Moving Rice to leadoff solves a lineup construction problem. Rice’s power makes him a legitimate threat to start games with a home run. His patience makes him a threat to draw a walk and hand Judge a runner-on situation.
Grisham’s profile makes more sense in the middle of the order. Slotting him fifth or sixth lets him face pitchers who’ve already burned through their best stuff. He can still drive in runs without having to set the table.
Everyday Player, Leadoff Threat
Rice’s role has evolved significantly since his June 2024 debut. He split time between first base, catcher, and designated hitter in 2025, but Aaron Boone has already confirmed he views Rice as the primary first baseman in 2026. That means everyday at-bats and the ability to build rhythm in a specific lineup spot. Leadoff makes the most sense.
The Yankees don’t need Rice to be a traditional table-setter who slaps singles and steals bases. They need him to be what Kyle Schwarber became for the Phillies: a power threat who sees enough pitches to either draw walks or crush mistakes. Rice’s hard-hit metrics suggest he’s built for that role.
Moving him to leadoff capitalizes on his best attributes, maximizes his role as the everyday first baseman, and gives the Yankees the most dangerous one-two punch in baseball. If Rice gets on base, Judge crushes. If Rice hits a home run, the Yankees are already ahead before Judge even swings. That’s how championship rosters maximize talent.
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