October was dominated by teams who relied on starters to rebound in 2024, as the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers had Game 2 starters with a combined 5.89 ERA and 5.20 FIP in 2023. Without Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, and Jack Flaherty on those squads, they may have been knocked out sooner in the postseason, they provided value in-season that became pivotal to their ability to either get a first-round bye or qualify for the postseason. Walker Buehler is coming off of a miserable 2024 season and will hit the free-agent market after a career-worst season.
The Yankees just had their season ended by Buehler in Game 5 of the World Series, and with Jon Morosi reporting mutual interest between the two parties in a potential contract, he could be the ideal low-cost starter that could yield massive returns in 2025.
Why Walker Buehler Would Fit the Yankees Perfectly
Walker Buehler’s degradation from Cy Young candidate to backend starter isn’t hard to comprehend, the right-hander saw a massive dip in pitch quality after his UCL surgery and would have to re-invent himself in real-time. While baseball is a game of adjustments, trying to master the command of various pitches to mask a diminishing fastball can be incredibly difficult to do during a championship push, resulting in teams punishing his four-seamer all season.
Late in the season, the tides seemed to finally turn for Walker Buehler, who found his four-seam fastball and parlayed it into an excellent postseason run.
The late-season spike in vertical movement came in Coors Field, a ballpark known for killing vertical ride on fastballs, and from that point forward he posted a 3.91 ERA with just two home runs allowed. The strikeout-to-walk rates were still mediocre, but the damage prevention improved dramatically, and it could be an indication of bigger things to come for Buehler in 2025.
If his four-seamer can return to having that 17-18 inches of vertical ride that it had in years past, it could be the swing-and-miss weapon it had been for Buehler throughout his career, but he has some new weapons at his disposal too. One of those weapons includes a brand-new sweeper that became a high-whiff pitch for him down the stretch, from September to the end of the season he had a 51.4% Whiff Rate and .217 wOBA as it averaged 17 inches of glove-side sweep.
With a pitch that has that much lateral movement, it complements the four-seamer, curveball, and cutter that already existed in his arsenal perfectly. He also has a sinker that generates groundballs and sits in the 94-95 MPH range that he can use to get lateral movement into righties or away from lefties when needed, and this offseason would be the first normal one for Buehler since the end of the 2021 season.
If you want to look back in Yankees’ history for examples of how pitchers can benefit from a normal offseason, look no further than Luis Severino.
READ MORE: Yankees ink depth outfielder to $5 million deal, avoiding arbitration
Just like Walker Buehler, Luis Severino lost the ride on his fastball in 2023 after injuries put him on the shelf until May, and the right-hander suffered through a miserable campaign. He tried using a sinker to keep hitters off of his fastball but didn’t have enough time to truly polish his stuff and get used to not overpowering hitters with his four-seamer. The Mets would sign him to a one-year $13 million deal and after serving as a capable middle-of-the-rotation arm, will either return to Queens on a new deal or net them some draft compensation.
Other pitchers on the 2024 Yankees enjoyed bounce-back seasons after having normal and healthy offseasons such as Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, who went from horrific to reliable in just one winter. Despite the nonsense you hear on social media, the Yankees are excellent at player development and pitching has been their strong suit since Sam Briend and Matt Blake were hired after the 2019 season. It’s a data-driven operation with the coaching to relay complex concepts to pitchers, and perhaps Walker Buehler could benefit from a change of scenery.
The Dodgers are at the top of the baseball world not just in terms of on-field play, but in terms of their development programs as well, but just like Severino who came from a strong organization, new voices can help a ton. It doesn’t seem like Buehler needs to make dramatic changes either, but rather just needs to be healthy and maintain the strides he made late in the season.
For the Yankees, this could be a low-cost option that allows them to trade out of their rotation to find an upgrade on the trade market.
Nestor Cortes could be a name that the Yankees shop on the market, and they might be able to get an impact bat for their infield in return. Landing someone like Walker Buehler would give the Yankees someone who has more swing-and-miss upside but more importantly, it would allow them to take advantage of a robust pitching market in free agency to land a cost-controlled bat.
Alex Bregman and Willy Adames will command hefty contracts, and if the Yankees want to seriously pursue Juan Soto they’ll need to plan their spending carefully. It would be interesting to see if Brian Cashman uses the pitching market to his advantage or if he runs it back with his rotation from last season, but if they do go after a low-cost starter, Walker Buehler could pitch well-above the contract he gets this winter.