The Yankees’ starting rotation is thinned out due to injury to open the 2026 season, with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon still rehabilitating from injury. They need to lean on some of their depth, but honestly, the Yankees should be genuinely concerned about Luis Gil, whose value has completely plummeted over the last year due to injury.
Look, I want to believe in Gil. I really do. The guy won the American League Rookie of the Year in 2024, and that wasn’t some fluke award. He tossed 151.2 innings, posted a 3.50 ERA, and struck out 10.15 batters per nine with a 78.8% left-on-base rate and a 35.6% ground ball rate. That version of Luis Gil was special, the kind of pitcher who gives you hope that the Yankees’ homegrown pitching development might actually be sustainable.
But then 2025 happened, and it’s hard not to feel a little pessimistic about where things are headed.
The 2025 Warning Signs
Gil posted a 3.32 ERA over 57 innings last season, and if you just glance at that number, you might think everything was fine. But he got lucky. Really lucky. He walked an astounding 5.21 batters per nine and only struck out 6.47 per nine. Those aren’t just bad numbers, they’re alarming trends that suggest a pitcher who’s lost command of his arsenal.
His ground ball rate dropped. His expected results didn’t look pretty. And here’s the kicker that really worries me: his velocity dropped off more than 1 mph from his Rookie of the Year campaign. In his first spring training start on Sunday against the Mets, that velocity dip has maintained.
“During Sunday’s start, Gil’s fastball velocity maxed out at 96.6 mph, and he was routinely in the 95 mph range,” per the Bergen Record. Now, before anyone jumps down my throat about it being early spring training, I know. Pitchers aren’t supposed to be fully ramped up yet. But when you’re already dealing with diminished velocity from last season and now you’re sitting 95-96 mph in February, the trend line isn’t pointing in the right direction.
The Rotation Reality Check
Right now, the Yankees need Gil to be a stable backend piece. The rotation features Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, and Gil. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of certainty when your ace is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and your number two starter is working back from bone spur removal.
Gil has the upside of being a solid mid-rotation piece. At his best, he’s a number three starter who can eat innings and keep you in games. But injuries continue to be a massive concern, and declining velocity is not exactly encouraging for a 27-year-old pitcher who should theoretically be entering his prime years.
Sunday’s Mixed Bag
Let me be fair here. Sunday’s performance against the Mets wasn’t terrible. The pitch shapes looked solid. The changeup had good command. He posted a 40% called strike plus whiff rate on just 10 pitches, which is encouraging. The velocity was down compared to last year across the board (2+ mph on his secondaries, 1 mph on his four-seam), but he did touch 96-97 mph a few times for strikeouts with the fastball.
He pitched with 1-2 inches more of vertical and horizontal break in this outing compared to last year, which suggests he’s trying to compensate for the velocity loss with better movement. No walks was a huge positive given his horrific 5.21 BB/9 from 2025.
He allowed 1 earned run and 2 hits over 2.2 innings, which is a perfectly fine spring training stat line.
The Underlying Concern
But here’s what keeps me up at night about Luis Gil: the command on the four-seamer has to be better. The velocity needs to tick up as spring progresses, or we’re looking at a guy who’s lost 2-3 mph off his best pitch in just two years. That’s not sustainable for a pitcher whose game is built on power.
“I feel like I’m on the right track,” Gil said through an interpreter after Sunday’s start. “Felt like I started on the right foot in this camp.”
I hope he’s right. I genuinely do. The Yankees need him to be right, because the alternative is relying even more heavily on guys like Will Warren and Ryan Weathers, who have their own question marks.
“What I’ve liked is the progression,” manager Aaron Boone said after Gil’s start. “I don’t know if some of that was guarding against (re-injury) or feeling like he was having a hard time getting into the strike zone consistently,” Boone said of Gil’s missing velocity in 2025.
Time Is Both Friend and Enemy
It’s extremely early in spring training, and Gil has plenty of time to improve over the next few months. That’s the optimistic take, and it’s not wrong. Pitchers build up gradually, velocity increases as they get stretched out, and command sharpens with reps. All of that is true.
But that’s also assuming he can stay healthy, which has proven to be difficult for the right-handed starter. Last year at this time, Gil developed a lat strain that delayed his season opener until August 3. He missed four months of development, came back diminished, and never really found his 2024 form.
“Physically, I feel like I’m where I need to be,” Gil said Sunday, adding that he can “get back to that level” from his Rookie of the Year season in 2024.
The confidence is there. The talent is there. The track record from 2024 proves he can be elite when everything clicks. But the injuries, the velocity decline, the walk issues, and the strikeout drop all point to a pitcher who’s trending in the wrong direction at age 27.
The Yankees need Luis Gil to be good this year. Not just “eating innings” good, but genuinely effective as a mid-rotation starter while Cole and Rodon work their way back. Based on what we saw Sunday and what we know from 2025, it’s really hard to feel optimistic about that happening. I want to be wrong. The Yankees need me to be wrong. But the warning signs are flashing bright red, and ignoring them doesn’t make them disappear.
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