Alexander Wilson
The New York Yankees already have one of the best rotations in baseball. That is not an overstatement. Max Fried has a 2.09 ERA over 47.1 innings. Cam Schlittler has a 1.51 ERA over 41.2 innings. Will Warren is sitting at 2.49. Ryan Weathers at 3.18. They’ve won 20 games in their first 30 contests without two of the best pitchers they have under contract. The rotation has been the backbone of everything good about this team through April and into May, and it’s been doing it shorthanded.
Now imagine what happens when the shorthanded part goes away.
Gerrit Cole is close. He’s been progressing through his minor league assignments and the buzz around his return has been building over the past week. Carlos Rodon is just around the corner too, expected back sometime in late May after his elbow cleanup surgery and hamstring complication pushed his timeline back further than anyone wanted. By the time Memorial Day rolls around, the Yankees could be trotting out Fried, Schlittler, Cole, Rodon, and Warren in their rotation every single time through.
That group has no weakness. Zero.
What Fried and Schlittler Have Already Proven
I keep coming back to the fact that the Yankees have built this thing the right way. Fried was the big-ticket free agent signing, and he’s delivered everything they asked for and more. When you’re posting a 2.09 ERA in the American League East through 47 innings and your xERA is 2.30, you’re not getting lucky. You’re just flat-out good. He’s limited hard contact, walked almost nobody, and given this team six or seven quality innings on a consistent basis all season long.
Schlittler has been on a different planet. A 1.51 ERA. A 99th percentile chase rate. A 98th percentile walk rate. Batting averages of .175, .094, and .154 against his three primary pitches. He’s 25 years old and under team control through 2032, and he’s currently pitching like the best arm in the American League. The Yankees drafted him in the seventh round. Seventh. There are front offices that would give up multiple first-round picks for a pitcher doing what Schlittler is doing right now.
Together, these two have carried a rotation that’s been short-staffed all season and helped build a 20-11 record. When the reinforcements arrive, they become the foundation of something that could be special.
What Cole and Rodon Add
The expectation for Cole coming back from Tommy John surgery doesn’t have to be the Cy Young version of him for this to work. If Cole gives the Yankees 75% of what he was at his peak, that’s still a legitimate number two or three starter on most teams in baseball. A healthy Cole with his arsenal intact, working behind Fried and Schlittler, changes how opposing managers approach every series. You can’t shuffle your lineup to avoid one ace. You certainly can’t do it against three.
Rodon just has to be close to the pitcher who posted a 3.09 ERA over 195.1 innings last season. That’s the baseline. He doesn’t need to be elite. He needs to eat innings, limit runs, and not be a liability in October. If the hamstring and elbow issues are genuinely behind him, there’s no reason to think he can’t do that.
The Depth Problem
Here’s where it gets interesting. When Cole and Rodon are back, the Yankees have six legitimate starting options for five rotation spots. Elmer Rodriguez made his MLB debut this week and has been dominant in Triple-A with a 1.27 ERA. Weathers has been better than expected all season. You don’t just cut those guys loose.
The most likely outcome is that one of the depth starters transitions into a high-leverage bullpen role when the rotation fills up, which honestly only makes the pitching staff better. Rodriguez coming out of the bullpen with a 99 mph fastball and five pitches as a bridge arm is a terrifying option for opposing hitters who haven’t faced him. Weathers as a multi-inning reliever who can strike out 11 batters per nine is not a downgrade either.
The Yankees are going to have more pitching than they know what to do with in a few weeks, and that’s exactly the position you want to be in heading into June.
Most teams spend their summers hoping their rotation holds together. The Yankees are spending theirs trying to figure out how to fit it all in.
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