Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Yankees and Padres have continued conversations on a potential trade regarding Luis Arraez, and while nothing is set in stone, their interest in him seems legit. He’s certainly a well-known player, but he’s far from what most would consider to be a perfect or even star-caliber infielder. The Yankees would love to add an infielder who could also be a leadoff hitter, but they’ve also made defense and baserunning focal points of their winter, and Arraez flies directly in the face of that.
On one hand, he’s an on-base machine thanks to his high average, but on the other, he’s a slap hitter with stones for hands in the infield. The Yankees have to find someone in the infield, but does that mean Luis Arraez is their best bet?
Are the Yankees In Over Their Heads With Luis Arraez?
There are two sides to the Luis Arraez conversation; on one hand, he’s won three straight batting titles while playing for three different teams, and those bat-to-ball skills are truly elite. It’s impossible to argue that his hit tool isn’t 80-grade, but Arraez’s detractors aren’t basing their argument on whether he’s elite at racking up hits, but rather if that one tool is impactful enough to offset the skills that Arraez lacks in the power and plate discipline departments.
He has a .096 ISO in his career and a 6.9% BB%; both of which are firmly below-average and would indicate that he’s nothing more than a one-trick pony with an aesthetically pleasing gimmick. The other pitfalls in his game come with his poor glove and baserunning, which are below-average, meaning that if Luis Arraez wants to be a productive player, he has to be a really good hitter.
Does this sound familiar? It should, because that’s the exact same problem that Gleyber Torres has, who constantly had to rely on his ability to hit in order to offset the inevitable mistakes he would make with his gloves or legs. I’ve even said that if you were the kind of fan who hated dealing with Gleyber Torres, you’d likely find yourself frustrated with Luis Arraez’s game as well, given their flaws are nearly identical.
That being said, anyone who would call Gleyber Torres a net negative player during his 2022 or 2023 seasons would be crazy; he posted a 118 wRC+ with a 3.1 fWAR on average, which the Yankees would gladly take given their infield situation right now. As for whether we could get that kind of outcome from Luis Arraez in 2025, Steamer would indicate it’s more than realistic.
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If the Yankees got a 118 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR from Luis Arraez in 2025, they would get much better production than what they got from Gleyber Torres in 2024, and it would also solidify the top of the Yankees’ lineup. What makes me even more optimistic about those projections is that they likely have him spending significant time at first base or DH, which he did after being traded to San Diego.
The Padres used Arraez more at DH or 1B than they did at 2B, which hurts his overall defensive impact to a roster, something that the Yankees likely won’t do given the other options they have at first and DH. Giancarlo Stanton is likely going to miss time this year because he always has spent at least one stint on the IL since 2019, but the Yankees would likely move Judge to DH and play Trent Grisham in CF.
We could also see them get creative and DH Ben Rice based on how he’s doing, they have far more options than throwing Arraez in that role. The same rings true for first base, where Cody Bellinger and the aforementioned Rice would likely get the nod there in the scenario where Paul Goldschmidt is hurt or unfathomably bad.
A legitimate concern one could bring up with these projections is that Luis Arraez’s production could get worse at Yankee Stadium, which doesn’t bode well for slap-hitting lefties due to the shallow outfield grass in right field, but San Diego is a far worse ballpark for his skillset. Steamer factors in a hitter’s home ballpark into these projections, and a 118 projected wRC+ would likely improve in their model if a trade went down between New York and San Diego.
That’s a pretty sizable difference in wOBA, as the Dodgers led baseball wOBA last year (.337) while the Brewers were 10th (.319), and while a hitter won’t have the same spray chart one year as another, it’s a three-year sample of data suggesting that Petco Park was pretty rough for Arraez. He still managed a 111 wRC+ there despite a thumb injury that would require surgery to repair, so perhaps Yankee Stadium won’t completely neutralize his skillset.
You also have to factor in that the Yankees don’t really have many OBP threats, losing Juan Soto really damaged their ability to reach base since he might have the best plate discipline in the entire sport. Steamer has Jasson Dominguez as their second-highest projected OBP (.326), which is just a point ahead of Paul Goldschmidt who is third. That won’t cut it, you’ll have a team that resembles the 2021 squad a little too closely for my liking.
It’s a rough defensive fit but the Yankees might have to act in desperation for someone like Luis Arraez who has consistently shown an ability to get on-base because he hits for such a high average. Is it kind of silly to let Gleyber Torres walk without even making an offer given that Luis Arraez has similarly bad defensive and baserunning value? Yes, but I also think that the Yankees have done their homework on other options and may not be satisfied with the prices.
What if Ha-Seong Kim gets offered a job as a shortstop elsewhere? What if the Rays will only move Brandon Lowe in return for George Lombard Jr.? Do we even know if the Twins would seriously entertain moving Carlos Correa? There are so many factors that play a role in whether an “available” player is really that available for the Yankees to go after on the market.
The Yankees need an infielder, they need someone who can get on-base, and quite honestly they just need to get better. Luis Arraez does that for them; it’s not by being a superstar (he’s far from that), it’s by being a good player who has a skillset that I think can survive the weird dimensions of Yankee Stadium. All I need is for him to play to his projections, even though they project him to have his second-worst defensive season and put up a wRC+ below his career average.