New York Yankees: Why Aaron Hicks is the New Jacoby EllsburyÂ

I thought it was a bad signing when I heard it. And so far, little is happening to dissuade me. But the second Aaron Hicks signed his name on the dotted line, the New York Yankees front office should already be regretting giving Aaron Hicks a 7 year $70 million contracts.

He and Ellsbury Have the Same Bugaboo

Hicks can’t stay healthy. Ellsbury couldn’t stay healthy. Hicks has a harder time staying healthy than Ellsbury.

Ellsbury, in his 11-year career, has played 3/4 of the season (120 games or more) 6 out of 11 seasons. Aaron Hicks has done that approximately twice in his 7-year career. He averages playing a full half-season, leaving the team trying to figure out who to start the other 82 games in the year. This means that Jacoby Ellsbury was more dependable for his teams than Aaron Hicks.

Hicks has got a better arm than Ellsbury, has but what good does it do you when you miss half the year? He covers more ground and can save you more runs defensively than Ellsbury, but what good does it do you when you miss half the season? And for someone heralded for his “great eye and speed”, he has a lower career on-base percentage and stolen base rate than Ellsbury, which begs the question “Why was he an upgrade when he’s hurt more frequently than Ellsbury?”

Why His Contract is Already Blowing Up in the Yankees Face

He signed the contract in 2019 and almost immediately proceeds to get hurt. The recovery from the injury was prolonged in ways that no one could have anticipated. Then, after he comes back, he gets hurt, AGAIN! He plays less than 60 games last season, and really only gets playing time in October because of Stanton’s injury. Now, he, like Didi in 2019, will miss at least half the season with Tommy John surgery in his throwing elbow. You know, the elbow responsible for his cannon of an arm?

It’s not outside of the realm of possibility that Hicks will come back as fast as Didi, and it’s also not outside of the same realm it’ll take him longer than Didi. The projected recovery time from Tommy John surgery is 8 to 10 months for Hicks. So let’s say Hicks can be back in 6 months. He got the surgery in October. That puts him in rehab games by April, back to the club May/June. 8 months means he doesn’t start the rehab process till June, potentially giving him an arrival date of July/August. If it takes 10 months, that means he wouldn’t be able to play many, if any, rehab games as 10 months mean he starts rehabbing in August. If it becomes the 10-month option, the Yankees should just shut him down and see him in February 2021.

So that already 2 years, and $20 million dollars given to someone who might play 141 games over that span. Granted, it’s still better than Ellsbury not being able to play any games since the 2017 postseason, but Ellsbury at least averaged 120 games played in his 4 seasons of playing time with the team. Hicks could only do that once. And with Hal Steinbrenner’s penny pitching, that’s $70 million that should be going to the front line ace that we needed 3 seasons ago, but never wanted to spend the money because “Oh no! We gotta stay below the luxury tax!”

I’m telling you, if he doesn’t have a spectacular 2021-2023, where he remains healthy all season long, this will go down as an even more misguided contract than the one they gave Ellsbury.