It’s September 10th, 2023. The Seattle Mariners announced that RHP Luke Weaver would be designated for assignment, marking the second time he had been DFA’d that season. He had signed as a free agent after the Cincinnati Reds did the same thing back on August 16th of that same season, and every team in baseball passed on a chance to claim him off of waivers. After being a key piece in the Paul Goldschmidt trade and posting a 2.94 ERA in 2019, Luke Weaver posted a 5.58 ERA and 1.29 HR/9 from 2020-2022, with the Diamondbacks finally moving on from him at the trade deadline.
2023 felt like rock-bottom though, as among the 102 pitchers to throw at least 120 innings in 2023, Luke Weaver had the worst ERA (6.40) and third-worst HR/9 (2.11). The Yankees would get three solid starts out of him, which gave them enough reason to bring him back on a one-year deal at $2 million with a club option for 2025. Fast-forward to now, and the once abysmal starter is the top dog in a Yankees’ bullpen that’s finding its form.
Once a pitcher who could get a slumping offense back on track, Luke Weaver has risen to the challenge of holding one of baseball’s most coveted roles; closer for the New York Yankees.
Luke Weaver’s Rise From DFA Fodder to the Yankees’ Best Bullpen Weapon
Last season we saw Luke Weaver feature six different pitches in an attempt to find anything that could help him limit damage contact and pick up whiffs. Batters whiffed under 22% of the time against him with a 9.8% Barrel Rate allowed, but Weaver seemed to find something thanks to a new four-seam grip and some more velocity. His four-seam grip was altered after a conversation with team ace Gerrit Cole, and his mechanics changed as well with the leg kick all but erased in his delivery.
The changes it made to his fastball were dramatic, and it’s helped it go from a firmly below-average offering to one that can blow hitters away and headline his arsenal.
A better fastball doesn’t just allow that one pitch to perform better, but it also creates better pitch synergy with the rest of his arsenal. Opposing hitters have to fear his fastball because it generates so much ride and sits in the mid-90s, making his changeup even more devastating than it would normally be. It’s truly one of the best offspeed pitches in the game, as batters have a 45.7% Whiff Rate against it with a .227 wOBA. He’s seen his changeup go from 8.2 inches of Induced Vertical Break (IVB) to 4.6, meaning it’s dropping significantly more than it did last season.
Paired with that heater which gained vertical ride, you have a combination of pitches that generate whiffs and chases consistently, something that has greatly helped Luke Weaver in high-leverage situations. The equalizer is his cutter, a pitch that I believe he’s tinkering with to allow it to have some slider-like tendencies, which Aaron Boone hinted at recently. He mentioned that Weaver had been tinkering with the shape of his cutter, and we’ve seen him try to throw it down and away to right-handed batters since the start of August:
Righties have zero hits against his cutter with a high whiff rate, and establishing the outer half of the plate it makes the changeup even more devastating. We’ve seen this same concept against lefties, with Luke Weaver painting an outside cutter to freeze Triston Casas after throwing a slew of fastballs and changeups. His cutter has become an incredible tertiary pitch for Weaver, sitting in between his two primary pitches from a vertical and horizontal movement standpoint while limiting damage contact.
It’s incredible to think that he’s taken such leaps with the Yankees, especially given how things looked for him in 2023 when he even briefly questioned whether his career was coming to an end or not:
“It just felt like there were a lot of adjustments, a lot of mental strength that I was trying to push through and that just felt like a really low point…In the moment, that was a point where I was actually asking those questions in my mind of like, ‘Is this it?’” – Luke Weaver (via The Athletic)
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We’re talking about a pitcher who was broken both on the field and off of it, someone who was constantly changing teams and cities as he tried to find some sort of continuity with where he was and how he performed. Baseball is both a physical and mental game, and this might be the most fun that Luke Weaver has had pitching at the Major League level in years.
“I couldn’t see straight. I was blacked out for the most part. I was on pure adrenaline, but it was a great time.” – Luke Weaver after his first career save
The screams off the mound and the rush of adrenaline aren’t just for show, Luke Weaver is truly amped up, and his velocity is ticking up as well. Since becoming the closer and shutting things down against the Cubs, he’s averaging 96.5 MPH on his fastball with a 157 Stuff+, and he’s struck out 59.3% of the batters faced over that stretch as well. There’s magic in the air when fall rolls around, as teams find themselves fighting for their season every single day, and Weaver is firmly in the mix of a division chase.
In what FanGraphs deems as a high-leverage situation, batters are slashing .087/.196/.087, meaning that he’s had 56 consecutive matchups in those situations without allowing an XBH. With runners in scoring position batters have posted an OPS of just .491, so as the moment gets more tense, Weaver has found ways to rise to the occasion. When this bullpen needed a hero, it was Luke Weaver who stepped up for the Yankees.
Just a year ago, Luke Weaver was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball; now he’s the best reliever on a Yankees’ team looking to make a deep October run.