It’s mid-November, and by now, the ill-fated Yankees championship run has finished its transformation into its final form: offseason anxiety. You will read plenty of articles, blog posts, and tweets about the “perfect” plan for how the Yankees should approach the 2024-25 off-season. Some are better than others.
However, there’s one thing they will all have in common – retaining Juan Soto. And rightfully so! Soto is so elite of a talent that he simply is not replaceable. But what if the Yankees can’t bring him back? What if Steve Cohen and his Strega Nona checkbook refuse to let the Yankees come close to their best offer?
Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole will play next season at ages 33 and 34, respectively. The window is closing. How can the Yankees compete for a ring even if they lose Soto to Queens (or somewhere else, I guess)?
How the Yankees can Build a Championship Roster Without Juan Soto
Before I get started, a few assumptions I’m abiding by:
- Assuming the Yankees choose to carry a payroll around where they were last year, they’ll likely have around $70-80M to spend. That number could jump up around $90-100M, if they find trade partners for Trent Grisham, Jose Trevino, and/or Marcus Stroman.
- I can make only 2 major MLB trades. Any more starts to become unrealistic.
- The Yankees should be 1 of 30 teams to go all out for Roki Sasaki, but given he’ll be effectively free for whichever team signs him, he’s the ultimate luxury. He’s also probably a Dodger or Padre. So I’m not relying on him for this plan.
- If the Tigers were actually dumb enough to entertain offers for Tarik Skubal, as has been rumored over the past 18 months or so, I would trade anyone for him. Anyone. But I can’t imagine Detroit actually does that, especially after their 2024 finish.
And of course, the ultimate preface to this plan – signing Juan Soto is the best way forward. Period. This plan falls under the what-if scenario in which they fail to bring him back. Nothing more.
Let’s dig in.
By now, everyone knows the Yankees lost the 2024 World Series not because they were less talented than their LA opponents, but because they were so poor at “fundamentals”. In practice, that translates to say that they weren’t great defensively and were abhorrent on the base paths.
Here’s the tricky thing that many fans fail to recognize: when your four best position players are Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres, it’s really, really, really difficult to be good at those parts of the game.
When that’s your core, you have to beat teams with brute force – as they did in the ALDS and ALCS. However, when facing a team of equal talent, the roster imbalance becomes more difficult to ignore.
So. If the Yankees lose out on the Soto Sweepstakes ™, they have to lean in and strive to create a more balanced roster. There’s no replacing Soto’s bat. Attempting to do so with a guy like Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso means accepting the same fatal flaws as last year’s squad while enabling a lower offensive ceiling.
Not to mention, paying 31 year old base-to-base, good-not-great sluggers that are best served at DH, 9 figure deals is like placing your own landmine in front of you, and then stepping on it.
Thus, to improve the balance of the position player group, the Yankees need to ensure the following:
- At least 5 of 9 starters are better than average runners.
- At least 6 of 8 starters are better than average defenders.
- No more than 5 RHH or 5 LHH.
- No more than 5 players with >23% K rates (around 40th percentile)
- No more than 5 players with <.170 ISO (effectively, I need at least 4 bats with “SLG”)
I call this the “2010s SF Giants + Aaron Judge” approach. There won’t be players at the top of this lineup that strike fear into pitchers like Soto did, but every at-bat will be different. Every hitter will have different strengths and weaknesses. There will be no “lanes” for opposing teams to have a significant advantage for 3+ batters in a row based on matchups. They will create runs by taking extra bases and stealing runs with high-end defense.
There will be no superstars (except Judge), but everyone will be a threat. I don’t advocate for this because I don’t want stars in the Yankee lineup. Obviously, I do. But given who’s available this offseason, I don’t think there are any to be had.
So, what moves exactly could the Yankees make to achieve such a harmonious roster?
Trade for Luis Robert
This isn’t our biggest splash, but it’s the most important one. Your shot at a star in CF. As much as I love a guy like Christian Walker, I can come somewhat close to getting what Walker provides with a guy like Carlos Santana. There aren’t any hyper-athletic center fielders with big offensive upside to fall back on if you don’t get Robert.
Robert has demonstrated true 5-tool upside at the MLB level when he hit 38 HR in 2023, along with a 128 wRC+. He also boasted elite speed (84th percentile sprint speed) and defense in CF (98th percentile OAA). This combination resulted in a 4.9 fWAR, good for 18th highest in all of baseball.
The problem is that his 2024 was awful. Playing around injuries and suiting up for the least inspiring team in baseball history is likely to blame, but there’s no denying there’s risk in acquiring a player like this. But to Brian Cashman, all he hears is “discount.”
Because of his poor 2024, and track record of injuries, Robert should be available for not much. Baseball Trade Values, while not gospel, is still a helpful benchmarking tool for evaluating what a player would cost to acquire. They give Robert 10.5 “points” of value.
The Yankees should be able to acquire him with just prospects, so I’ll send over a young upside player like Roderick Arias (11.3 points) since the White Sox are likely looking to build a farm, not compete in the next couple of years.
Robert (still just 27) provides the Yanks a shot in the arm athletically, at minimum. At best, they get a near MVP-caliber CF. While he does strike out too much and is another RHH, his aggressive, swing-happy approach does provide a different look for pitchers relative to the often patient and passive approach by guys like Judge and Stanton.
But perhaps most importantly, acquiring a true CF like Robert pushes Judge back to RF and allows the Yankees to immediately upgrade defensively at both positions. It also means there’s no pressure for a corner OF like Jasson Dominguez to man CF in 2025…phew.
Cost: $15M in 2025 (club options for $20M in 2026 and 2027)
Next best alternative: Cody Bellinger
Trade Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren for Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado
Don’t get it twisted, Nootbaar is the prize here. Nootbaar is the most underrated 5-tool player that baseball has to offer. The 27-year-old lefty outfielder would fit perfectly in the Bronx. He hits the absolute snot out of the ball, boasts some of the best plate control in baseball (98th percentile BB%, 65th K%) while being a high-level defender in the corners capable of playing an acceptable CF, and was in the 82nd percentile in baserunning value in 2024. The dude’s a stud.
So why would St. Louis trade him? Well, they might not. But whispers of a rebuild in St. Louis could open that door, especially if you would be willing to take on a certain contract of a declining veteran. Enter Nolan Arenado.
While you’re mainly taking back Nolan in this deal to incentivize the Cardinals into trading Noot, Arenado actually fits the Yankees’ needs sneaky well. He’s not the player he once was, so don’t expect him to be your cleanup hitter. But he’s still an elite defender who projects to be a slightly above-average run-producer with consistently great bat-to-ball skills (92nd percentile K%).
I’m one of many who believe Ha-Seong Kim would be a great fit for this team, and Nolan Arenado, in his current form, is basically just slow Kim at third base. If you want to drink the Kool-Aid a little more, you could argue that Nolan’s sinking hard-hit and barrel rates aren’t a huge worry because he was never a top-notch hard-hit guy. Even at his best, he produced via batted ball efficiency (i.e., lots of pulled-fly balls). So perhaps he’s just a mechanical tweak away from a renaissance since he never relied on elite physical ability.
All this from a 6 or 7 hitter? Not bad! Plus, he’d probably provide some welcome piss and vinegar into the clubhouse.
Arenado’s contract also isn’t THAT bad – the Cardinals owe him $52M over the next three years. Doable.
To get this done, the Yankees trade from an area of depth and give STL two controllable rotation arms.
Cost: $18M in 2025 ($16M in 2026, $15M in 2027 for Nolan – Nootbaar projects to make around $3M less than Schmidt in arbitration)
Next best alternative: Trade Clarke Schmidt for Kerry Carpenter, sign Ha-Seong Kim
Give the first base job to…
So, at this point, we now have a starting outfield of Nootbaar, Robert, and Judge. The infield has Arenado, Volpe, and Jazz, while Wells is behind the plate and Stanton is at DH. There is only one first base left to cover (*insert Anthony Rizzo joke here*).
Going back to our checklist, we have:
- 4 plus runners (need one more)
- 7 plus defenders (all set)
- 5 RHH and 3 LHH (need one more LHH or switch hitter)
- 4 players with >23% K% (could afford one more)
- 4 players with >.175 ISO (need one more)
We need a LHH (or switch) first baseman who is an above average runner and has a >.175 ISO…not an easy combination to find!
But what if I told you the Yankees already have one in the building? It’s Ben Rice!
Rice didn’t see the results he wanted in his short taste of the bigs in 2024. However, his under-the-hood metrics were awesome. And I mean really awesome. Do you know how many players in MLB logged at least 100 PA and had a better barrel rate and walk rate than Ben Rice?
Seven. Only seven players did that. Those players include Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, and Mike Trout.
These data points likely explain Steamer’s generous 2025 projection for Rice: .755 OPS and 114 wRC+.
Oh – and Rice ranked in the 52nd percentile in sprint speed. Box, checked.
If Rice continues to flounder, you go get someone at the deadline. But I want to see what he does with an extended sample.
Cost: minimal.
Next Best Alternative: Trade for Luke Raley.
Sign Blake Snell
Well, well, well. You just built an offense for $36M. Translation: you have money to spend.
After Soto, money is best utilized on the talented pitching market in this free agent class. Since we traded Schmidt, we’ll add one of the best pitchers in the game, turning a team strength into a force of nature.
Corbin Burnes would also be acceptable here, but I slightly lean Snell due to (presumably) fewer years required to sign him, and he might just be better right now.
Not much to over-analyze with Snell. But don’t worry I’m going to. Over the last three seasons, Snell ranks 6th in MLB in ERA, 6th in FIP, and 2nd in K% among starters. Driveline also recently released analysis from their pitching models that showed while Snell doesn’t grade out well in Location+ (yes, he does walk a lot of batters), he graded out near the top of qualified starters in Command+.
Location+ is a relative metric that measures a pitcher’s accuracy, based on the strike zone. Command+ does the same thing, but instead of anchoring on the strike zone, it’s based on where the catcher is setting up. The takeaway here is that while Snell throws a lot of balls and walks too many, he’s doing that intentionally. The strong Command+ score demonstrates how accurate he is at hitting his spots. Snell is effectively saying “you either won’t hit this pitch, or you can’t”. He’s either throwing a perfect pitch or a ball, where he lives to see another pitch. And that’s why his run prevention is elite.
There’s an argument that this version of Blake Snell, when on the mound, is the best pitcher in the game right now.
Cost: $30M in 2025 (Fangraphs projects a 4-year, $120M contract)
Next Best Alternative: Corbin Burnes
Sign Tanner Scott, AJ Minter, and Jonathan Loaisiga
While Cashman & Co. has proven building a quality bullpen out of sticks and twigs is their superpower, the Yankees should still look to add some proven arms to their pen. Under this scenario, they likely have around $20-30M to spend. And they should spend it!
With Scott, they get a back-of-the-bullpen arm to go alongside Weaver. With Minter, they get another lefty who excels at missing bats, and they’ll likely get him at a discount after coming off an injury. With Loaisiga, they get a lottery ticket. No one should know JLo’s upside better than the Yanks, and Loaisiga will need to demonstrate he’s healthy and effective to rebuild his value before hitting free agency again. And I imagine finishing his rehab with the organization he’s been with the last 6 years would be a plus for him.
These three give the Yanks high upside arms, all with swing-and-miss stuff. I’ll leave the rest of the pen-building to the pros. Find me the next Tim Hill, please.
(If the Yankees prefer not to go up to the same payroll they had last year, or my payroll math is wrong, I’d pass on Scott and trust Matt Blake finding more diamonds in the rough).
Cost: $22M in 2025 (Fangraphs projects 3 years for $42M for Scott, 1 year for $5M for Minter, and 1 year for $3M for Loaisiga.)
Sign Carlos Santana
With the last change in Hal’s pocket, the Yankees add the ultimate veteran. Santana not only gives you some insurance if Rice struggles, but he is also renowned for his clubhouse presence and leadership.
While the tippy top of the Yankee lineup isn’t as strong as 2024, they should strive to build far greater depth. Stanton will get hurt. Someone else probably will, too. Having a guy like Santana, who is an elite defensive first baseman who walks a ton and limits K’s, will come in handy. This would be very akin to Brett Gardner entering every season as the fourth OF and finding a way to play 130 games.
You also may have noticed this plan means there are no starting spots handed to Jasson Domingez and Caleb Durbin. I believe in those two! And I think if Soto is back, you can definitely afford to see what you have in them.
But as we learned with Anthony Volpe in 2023, relying on rookies as offensive producers is a bad bet. Rice fits best with the roster we put together, and starting a second rookie is asking for disappointment.
The good news, though? When players ultimately do get hurt…because they always do…you now have the Durbin’s and the Dominguez’s of the world in your lineup instead of Willie Calhoun’s and Billy McKinney’s.
Cost: $7M in 2025 (Fangraphs projects 1 year for $7M)
Final Roster
To make this roster “complete” there’s certainly some fat to cut. DJ LeMahieu had an awesome run as a Yankee, but it’s over. When you have a very slow, ground ball hitter who no-longer hits the ball hard like he used to, you have a walking double play.
I’m finding a trade partner for Jose Trevino and JT Brubaker to save a few bucks, and letting Carlos Narvaez have a shot as the back-up catcher. I’d also look to do the same with Trent Grisham, but I think it’s more than fine to hold on to him. Finding a good defensive CF for less than $5M isn’t easy – he has more value than we give him credit for.
My back of the napkin math says I added $95M in new salaries, and jettisoned about $11M by finding new homes for Clarke Schmidt, Jose Trevino and JT Brubaker, for a final net addition of $84M.
Lineup:
- Luis Robert – CF (103 projected 2025 wRC+ according to Steamer)
- Lars Nootbaar – LF (123)
- Aaron Judge – RF (170)
- Jazz Chisholm – 2B (114)
- Giancarlo Stanton – DH (116)
- Austin Wells – C (106)
- Nolan Arenado – 3B (106)
- Ben Rice – 1B (114)
- Anthony Volpe – SS (100)
Bench:
- Carlos Santana – 1B
- Oswaldo Cabrera – UTIL
- Carlos Narvaez – C
- Trent Grisham – OF
Rotation:
- Gerrit Cole (R)
- Blake Snell (L)
- Carlos Rodon (L)
- Luis Gil (R)
- Marcus Stroman (R)
- Nestor Cortes (L)
Bullpen:
- Tanner Scott (L)
- Luke Weaver (R)
- Jake Cousins (R)
- AJ Minter (L)
- Ian Hamilton (R)
- Mark Leiter Jr (R)
- Jonathan Loaisiga/Clayton Beeter/Yoendrys Gomez/Scott Effross/AAAA pitcher du jour
There you have it. Possibly the best rotation in baseball, with a pen that will perform no matter who’s in it, a deep bench, and a starting lineup that provides the ultimate diversity of hitting styles while playing elite defense and running well.
Now it’s time for Cashman to thread the needle.